Top set on 3bet pot drawy flop

    • SeagalSteven
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 875
      TheLearningM1ndset posted some interesting hands so I'll post one too that I found interesting. I wasn't on this game, so I'll just edit how this one was played :f_drink:

      Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 4 Players

      UTG: 232 bb
      Hero (BTN): 287 bb
      SB: 69 bb
      BB: 227 bb

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with :Js: :9s: :Jd: :7c:
      UTG raises to 4,3 bb, Hero calls 4,3 bb, SB folds, BB raises to 18,5 bb, UTG calls 14,2 bb, Hero calls 14,2 bb

      Flop: (56,8 bb) :Jc: :Tc: :5d:
      BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

      Turn: (56.8 bb) :7s:
      BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 28,4 bb, BB raises to 141,8 bb, UTG folds, Hero bets 267,9 bb (all-in), BB calls 66 bb (all-in)

      First River: (472,7 bb) :Ac: (2 players)

      Second River: (472,7 bb) :2s: (2 players)

      Results: 472,7 bb pot

      Final Board: :Jc: :Tc: :5d: :7s: :Ac: / :Jc: :Tc: :5d: :7s: :2s:

      Hero mucked :Js: :9s: :Jd: :7c: and lost 227 bb

      BB showed :Qs: :Td: :9d: :8s: and won 227 bb

      So our hero flops top set + weak gutter on 3-way 3-bet pot in position on a drawy board SPR ~ 4, and he goes ahead and check-backs. Well, that wouldn't have been my play, but this player is so accomplished that it got me thinking what are the merits of his choice on the flop.

      So he is pratically flipping against hand that has :Kc: :Qc: , and if someone really has a monsterdraw hero can be even behind here. It's a 3-bet pot so people tend to have rather stronger hands than usual, and probably bad aces aren't going broke here this deep. So he is sneakily checking-back hoping for a blank with a disguised strong made hand. +Sides he can evaluate IP OTT, if some draw completes he can call and if not, he will have better equity against them. If board pairs OTT or OTR people will have hard time putting him on top boat.

      Turn isn't a complete blank but one of the better cards when he blocks straight and everyone checks twice to him. I guess there is nothing to be done when the draws are still out there, and against them he will have now better equity only one card coming up.

      Would you ever make such flop decision here?
  • 3 replies
    • TheLearningM1ndset
      Joined: 09.09.2017 Posts: 26
      hey, thx for the hand Seagalteven,

      well, i find this absurdly shocking. i would have sympathyt w bare TT, but not w this much of a monster.

      yea, he s agains 2 ranges that smash this board, so his bet is deffo face up as strong, but he can for sure have various draws himself so underrealizing equity on turn runouts, should not be a question if he plays many of those agressively also

      him having gutter to the 8 actually is important, since its way more alive than the other gutter (to the 9), coz their ranges have way more KQ than Q9. against KQ w fd he has 55% which is a nice edge, moreover vs KQ+OP he has 59% and i dont think OP+gutter can fold either (esp if SB folds already and its UTGs turn.. (where he has 74% eq)

      i also dont think anyone has bare AA just coz PF.. UTG would surely 4bet and BB would not sqz bad AA this deep vs 2 good plrs.. this should way more lean him towards betting, as he s a lot more likely getting value from those w that 75%ish equity ..

      he s prolly afraid of potting, getting just a call and facing potsized donk on 40% of turns where he is rly hardpressed w this hand specifically.... maybe maybe he thinks if he pots that even OP+gutter fold? (i mean yea, for BB to x/f w AAQT..makes sense, but 1, he doesnt rly have to pot, 2, as said, he himself will be protected by many hands in his range. maybe he s afraid that he cannot make the fold vs potsized donk even on most of those bad T cards coz he doesnt know these 2 guys tendencies for calling light and overtunring hands to bluff? say he s not sure BB would x/c here any Ac w a pair to donkpot it and he doesnt want to potentially be sloving that highvariance spot OTT?

      so do u think BB just x/f AAQT here?
    • SeagalSteven
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 875
      Hey, thanks for your input.

      These players are aggressive and more than capable of bluffing, so I dont think BTN is going to fold many turns if he bets otf. Like here he doesnt get odds against straight but will stack-off because villain will have other hands too.

      BB not folding AAQT, he blocks made hands with T, is drawing live and quite low SPR. Also UTG probably is just folding after checking.

      So I dont either really understand this xback here. He blocks setup hands like 2prs, he cant shove turn if not betting flop and if villain pick-ups 2prs from the turn it's probably card that brings straight so it might kill action. Also by betting if someone has low cards weak FD he will fold it and not get free card.

      Negative aspects quite clearly outweight positive ones IMO, so I guess the reasoning behind this play wasnt solved :)

      Maybe it's possible even crushers make mistakes or suboptimal plays sometimes.
    • Kyyberi
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,078
      SPR is 5 so it's tricky to play with a bet too. Against stack off range JJ is mostly flipping there (unless it's against TT). Betting flop and then checking turn that completes something turns the hand more or less face up, which leads to nasty river situation. And that something gets there over half of the turns. Unless board pairs, hero most likely loses the river if he bets the flop. And if it pairs, hero doesn't get much value.

      I would bet the turn if there was just SPR 1 or so for the turn. Here, especially if the opponents are aggressive, hero should have better value after checking as opponents can overplay hands if board pairs or make a bluff (as no one should have a full house). And if turn completes something hero has quite easy job to play that hand in position.

      So in a way I understand why he might have checked the flop. Against hand that opponent had, it doesn't really matter what to do. Money would go in postflop anyway. What we should be thinking is how to get the maximum out of the non-stack off ranges from the opponents. And maybe he has a read that one of the opponents likes to be aggressive against capped ranges?