AKQ6ss - river spot vs reg

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,872
      Party, $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $583.39 (583.4 bb)
      Hero (BB): $368.93 (368.9 bb)
      MP: $86.31 (86.3 bb)
      CO: $264.81 (264.8 bb)
      BTN: $104.78 (104.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with :Qc: :Ah: :6s: :Ks:
      MP folds, CO raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $2

      Flop: ($6.50) :8d: :Kc: :Qs: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $4.63, Hero calls $4.63

      Turn: ($15.76) :2h: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $13.33, Hero calls $13.33

      River: ($42.42) :7s: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $35.86, Hero calls $35.86

      CO is a reg - no stats.
      Unsure what to do in spots like this.

      I only beat a bluff but on the other hand I'm quite close to the top of my range so...
      Thanks
  • 16 replies
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 34,580
      Calling this down seems fair enough for me as PLO fish. You are blocking 2 sets and you beat some 2-pair combo’s as well and if we raise on 1 point we get only action of better I think.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
      Black
      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,211
      Without the ace it's a better call. With it, i think folding is fine too.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,872
      Originally posted by Shevtshenko
      Without the ace it's a better call. With it, i think folding is fine too.
      We block straight draw wraps he barrels?
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,937
      One Ace doesn’t block that heavily imo. I can check some numbers tomorrow.
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,937
      Interesting stuff.

      If his cbet range is AA+,JT9+ then the A blocker works in reversed way.

      When hero has AKQ6, villain has JT9+ (=AJT,JT9) 24,4% of times. If we change hero's hand to KQ62, villain has those 22,2% of times.

      Reason is that A blocks AA heavily too.

      Now if we change his cbet range to KQ+,JT9+ the numbers for wraps are 42% with an Ace and 44,7% without.

      If we widen his cbet range to K+,JT+ then the numbers for JT+ are 30,8% with an Ace and 27,1% without.

      I really don't see how hero could ever fold here. If villains cbet range is KQ+,JT9+ hero has 53% equity on the river. And the wider it gets, the more equity hero has.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,872
      Originally posted by Kyyberi

      If we widen his cbet range to K+,JT+ then the numbers for JT+ are 30,8% with an Ace and 27,1% without.
      Once consideration is how much he barrels with this same range. I'd assume he's not betting turn with exactly same range. Some KJTA type hands should definitely consider x/b turn, no? The barreling hands already become more polarised. I'd say AA barreling turn is already a little close - though I'd like an opinion on that?
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,937
      Depends on how villain sees hero's range. Turn is as blank as it can be, and if hero raises sets on the flop then it's a good spot to barrel. Draws work as semibluff and other work as value. Some people just barrel that blank with most of their range and some check back those draws cos they don't want to be check-raised. The thing is that if villain checks that turn it pretty much caps his range. Some players can deal with that and some don't want to put themselves to that position.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,872
      So with AA (+no relevant side cards) you're happy with plan of barreling for similar size?
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,937
      Yes, especially if opponent is likely to raise 2p+ on the flop.
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
      Black
      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,211
      Originally posted by Kyyberi
      Yes, especially if opponent is likely to raise 2p+ on the flop.
      Are there really regs that raise this flop vs 3/4 psb with two pair 265bbs deep?
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,937
      I would assume so. Doesn't mean it's the best strategy or that all do it. But some do.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,872
      Yeah, tbh, I'm not in love with raising many 2p on this flop. We either get action from better or from very strong wraps. Either way we are going to dislike many runnouts at this stack depth.
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
      Black
      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,211
      I don't really ever see the flop value c/r from regs this deep with less than QQ. Actually I'm unsure if the BB benefits much from having a c/ring range on the flop at all.
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,937
      Why wouldn't BB need a raise range?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,872
      Originally posted by Kyyberi
      Why wouldn't BB need a raise range?
      I think Shev means we're at a range disadvantage on this particular flop. So it's harder for us to have a balanced x/r range. Is that right?
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
      Black
      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,211
      Not really. Just that it's tough to c/r a meaningful amount on this flop and remain balanced on most runouts. Fwiw, it's definitely GTO to have a raising range on the flop. Just not sure how you pick hands to c/r, so that your c/cing range stays defendable.