J987ds flush facing turn x/raise

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,855
      Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $39 (39 bb)
      BB: $216.74 (216.7 bb)
      UTG: $83.78 (83.8 bb)
      Hero (MP): $206.16 (206.2 bb)
      CO: $100 (100 bb)
      BTN: $37.78 (37.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with :7s: :Jh: :8s: :9h:
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, BTN folds, SB calls $3, BB calls $2.50

      Flop: ($14) :Qh: :Kh: :8h: (4 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

      Turn: ($14) :Ts: (4 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $7, 2 folds, BB raises to $25.02, Hero calls $18.02

      River: ($64.04) :4d: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      BB is a strong thinking reg. Turn agg 40%. 2.5k hands.

      Sizing for our turn bet?

      After other players fold to my turn bet, I think he is more than capable of sometimes doing this with nfblocker so I don't think b/f second nuts is ever an option.

      However, once he checks the river it seems rather unlikely he has the nflush, unless he expects me to again bet worse flushes (which is ambitious). However, given he does check, is my x/b missing value?

      As played villain showed :Kc: :Ks: :4s: :Th: for top set, with a good flush blocker. My first though was not to like the x/r since he's bluffing with a pretty strong hand. However, if he thinks by x/c and leading boats otr he will get no value since his hand is face up, maybe it's a good play especially if I can b/f the turn with straights and maybe some low flushes. If I call he can bomb the river when he boats up. Thoughts?

      Lastly is there any chance this is a thin value raise vs a worse set? I guess only if he thinks I can b/c sets ott!
  • 6 replies
    • SeagalSteven
      SeagalSteven
      Silver
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 822
      It's not value on straight-flush board 4way :) It's clear though that no-one has very strong hand, and and maybe indeed he can fold your weaker flushes or straights if you were somehow to bet a straight here. If not, he can improve, interesting line.

      On the river his range is really nut flush, blocker bluff or a set apparently. Do you think he will call with his valuehands that you beat (set, putting you on dry QQ or such and calling) or bluff reshove nfd blocker more often than double-check-raise the nuts?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,855
      Originally posted by SeagalSteven
      It's not value on straight-flush board 4way :) It's clear though that no-one has very strong hand, and and maybe indeed he can fold your weaker flushes or straights if you were somehow to bet a straight here. If not, he can improve, interesting line.

      On the river his range is really nut flush, blocker bluff or a set apparently. Do you think he will call with his valuehands that you beat (set, putting you on dry QQ or such and calling) or bluff reshove nfd blocker more often than double-check-raise the nuts?
      Genuinely not sure :) I think double x/r nuts is highly unlikely since I always have a bluffcatcher ott (even if it's the second nuts). That said, I can't see how he ever takes this line with a worse hand that can call a river bet...
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,918
      I don't think BB has the nuts there often. Once the flop goes checked, he would bet his nuts on the turn instead of trying to go for a check-raise. But you shouldn't have the nuts either, you would often bet it on the flop. Probably he figures that out and decides to raise. I would assume he has Ah quite often, so I would call and give him an opportunity to bet it on the river.

      Once he checks the river, you have pretty much 2 options:
      - Check and go to showdown
      - Bet and induce a big raise from the blockers. Bet around 40 and then call if he shoves. Bet-folding would be a disaster.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,855
      Nice and clear; thanks Kyyberi :)
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
      Black
      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,196
      I think I usually bet this on the flop. Are we really that afraid of nuts that this is always a check otf?
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,918
      Not afraid of nuts. But how much value are we getting from worse hands? 3 streets? 2 streets? 1 street?

      When we check the flop we give others chance to bluff ott or bet ourselves and our range is wider than if we bet the flop. Most of the times we are going to get 1-2 streets of value. The only hands we lose value against by checking the flop are the sets and maybe Thigh flushes who might actually call 3 streets. Even then I doubt if we bet 4way flop and barrel 3 streets the 3rd nuts would call the river bet always.

      If we bet the flop, what is the plan for turn and river? Fire 3 streets?