Stealing vs a table captain fish on BB, close to bubble / final table [45-man]

    • vlzvl
      vlzvl
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.03.2014 Posts: 158
      PokerStars $0.23+$0.02 - NLHE Tournament (SNG, 45-man, regular) - 80/160/20 Blinds - 7 players

      MP: 7161 (45 bb)
      MP+1: 5989 (37 bb)
      HJ: 5362 (34 bb)
      CO: 2279 (14 bb)
      Hero (BTN): 6270 (32 bb*)
      SB: 2060 (13 bb), (15) VP:37 PFR:0 AF:1.0 3B:0 AS:0 FS:33 CB:0 FC:0 WS:0 W$:0
      BB: 9393 (59 bb), (16) VP:44 PFR:16 AF:2.7 3B:0 AS:100 FS:0 CB:100 FC:0 WS:66 W$:50

      bb* = adjusted blinds for antes

      Preflop: (380) Hero is BTN with A :heart: 6 :diamond:
      4 folds, Hero ???

      A6o is on my open-raising range from BTN vs Blinds on middle stages.
      However, in this situation i have some problems:

      - The BB is the captain of the table (and i think tourney leader), with a huge stack.
      - He seems fishy by stats; big gap VPIP/PFR and unpredictable post-flop. I expect him to call.
      - I am in pretty good shape, 3rd in a 45-man with 13 players left and don't want to risk much here, now.

      Did not had enough hands of him to consider his Fold to steal stat, so i was left with his VP/PFR combo.

      1. Should i just keep my plan, stealing the blinds?
      2. Perhaps fold those marginal stealing cases?
      3. Steal only 50% of the time?
  • 7 replies
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
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      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 34,520
      So far, I can tell we are at the last 2 tables with 15-13 players remaining and 7 gets paid.
      I would still steal from the BTN and fold on a 3bet of 1 of the blinds. I don’t think this is even a marginal stealing spot on the BTN, Off course I prefer stealing with a suited connector then a weak ace like this, but I expect it’s still profitable to do.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • Okkernootje
      Okkernootje
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.09.2013 Posts: 517
      I'm on the same page as SDK here.
      Our "default" (as if) steal% from BTN "should" be well above 50% from a exploitative point where people overfold/not defending their blinds too much. A6o fits well within a 50% range. Besides, we have position.

      1. yes.
      2. only if SB has solid stats and(!) BB is 3bet happy I could see a fold here
      3. we could even go higher (up to 70%) if we understand (calling/defend) ranges from blinds and what boardtextures (not) to bet
    • vlzvl
      vlzvl
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      Joined: 17.03.2014 Posts: 158
      I see,
      thanx both guys, much appreciated!!
    • dddq8842
      dddq8842
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      Joined: 09.12.2014 Posts: 85
      I think you should always raise any ace on the button.
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
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      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 34,520
      Originally posted by dddq8842
      I think you should always raise any ace on the button.
      True. Only with heavy ICM in play you could consider folding the weaker Ax hands. That could happen at for example the bubble of a 45 man like this with re-shove happy players in de blinds.
    • dddq8842
      dddq8842
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2014 Posts: 85
      Originally posted by SDK1987
      True. Only with heavy ICM in play you could consider folding the weaker Ax hands. That could happen at for example the bubble of a 45 man like this with re-shove happy players in de blinds.
      I agree with you, but hero has 32bb which is enough to r/f when sb,bb resteals.
      Also, in $0.25 sng it's highly unlikely they will purposely put icm pressure on you when attempting to steal the blinds.
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
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      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 34,520
      That’s right. It was only an example.