Was it wrong to push here?

    • STR82ACE
      STR82ACE
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.10.2008 Posts: 389
      (Comment)
      Known players: (?)
      vp$ip BBvsSteal ORL RaisePreflop
      Position: Stack
      AF W$SD WTS hands

      Hero: $2.00

      66 0 50 21
      CO: $10.69
      5.3 50 38 29


      0.05/0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by http://www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9, 9 (Comment)
      5 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, CO raises to $0.70, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.00 (All-In), CO calls $1.30.

      Flop: ($4.15) K, Q, 8 (Comment)
      Turn: ($4.15) T (Comment)
      River: ($4.15) 6 (1 players) (Comment)


      Final Pot: $4.15

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows a pair of nines (9d 9h)
      CO shows a straight, ace high (Ac Js)

      CO wins with a straight, ace high (Ac Js)


      Was it wrong to push preflop here?
  • 1 reply
    • LMOJ
      LMOJ
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2007 Posts: 58
      According to the basic SSS articles, you should have folded to this reraise. Your stack : raise ratio was 4:1. With that ratio you push AK, JJ, QQ, KK and AA only.

      I know it was not a normal reraise. That guy minreraise / called you with AJ! It can get pretty confusing, dealing with such nonsensical play. If you stick to what the articles tell you, his play still has negative expected value.

      You will fold 99, TT, and AQ, 41% of your range. If you push, he'll have a 25% equity against your range.

      EV(opponent's stupid line) = 0,55 x 0,41 + 2 x 0,59 x 0,25 - 2 x 0,59 x 0,75 = 0,225 + 0,259 - 0,885 = -0,4

      He loses in the long run!

      Of course, if you were to push 100% of your range here, his line would be even stupider. But not everyone will be capable of doing that with AJ. Most of the time he'll have a better hand, and doing what the articles tell you to do is safer, at least until you know your opponent all too well.

      EDIT: Forgot to include the blinds in the calculation, they're included now. His line is still very bad. 41% of the time he will win 55 cents (generously assuming the button and the blinds always fold, if they join the pot it will probably be with a premium hand and he'll be even more fucked), and the other 59% it will be either a net gain of 2 bucks if he's lucky (the rake eats the dead money of the blinds), or a net loss of 2 bucks when he loses.

      EDIT2: After taking a close look at his stats, despite the small sample size you have with 29 hands, I'd say your push was not wrong at all after all.

      Cheers!