penultimate bad beat

    • abospizza
      abospizza
      Basic
      Joined: 09.12.2017 Posts: 3
      thursday 12/7 I experienced the penultimate bad beat at Golden Gates Poker room. It came as the bubble in the Mountain States $400 freeze out tournament. the blinds were 4k-8k I openned in 4 position from the big blind to 19k with Ad Ac got called by the button big blind makes it 75k, I think about a call or raise and raise all in additional 65k. I did this to get the button out for heads up, button folds, big blind calls with Kh Ks Flop comes Ah As 10 h I flop 4 aces, turn comes Qh and the table goes crazy rooting for the Jh and it came. I lost to a Royal Flush. the room went crazy i was in disbelief and out of the tourney.
      Anyone figure the odds for this to happen 50 million to 1 or more.
  • 7 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 9,855
      Although the odds against that are extreme, I think 50 million to one is a bit high.
      I have only played two live tournaments in my life. In the second one, at the table behind me, 4 Aces lost to a royal flush.

      Where's that bad beat jackpot when you really need it?

      Assuming both players are all-in, it is apparent that the person with the flush draw has 1 out.
      OTR there are 8 visible cards, so there are 44 unknowns.

      So at that point, he has a 2.2% chance of winning.

      But let's back up a ways...
      There are 1326 possible Hold'em hands
      6 of those are AA
      So the chances of getting AA are 6 out of 1326 or 4.5%
      Three of those have a heart, so we can only look at the 3 that don't.
      The chances of getting AA without the A of Hearts are 3 out of 1326 or 2.23% [1]

      Of the remaining 1325 possible hole cards, 3 of them are :Kh: :Kx:
      So the chances of villain having the particular set of KK would then be 3/1325 or 2.23% [2]

      The flop as described contains an offsuit ace, and a T to match one of the Aces
      With the two sets of hole cards gone, we're now dealing with 48 cards, and they can be made into 3-card groups 17296 ways,
      Exactly two of those are AAT where the T matches the suit of an A -- so 2/17296 = 0.01% [3]

      OTT: We're down to 47 cards, and two of them are part of the Royal Flush: 2/47 = 4.3% [4]
      OTR: 46 cards left, and only 1 suits villains quest: 1/46 = 2.2% [5]

      To find the chances of all these things happening on the same hand, multiple the chances of each step together:
      0.0223 x 0.023 x 0.0001 x 0.043 x 0.022
      or 4.7 x 10^-9 %

      I'm not entirely sure how to convert to odds format -- X:1 -- from % when the percentage value is so small.

      I'm also not sure at all if I did the math right.
      50 million to 1 seems optimistic, really

      All the best,
      VS
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 35,240
      That’s a nasty way to lose with even nastier runout, but when the money was going in it was an 80/20 situation and you wouldn’t fold KK ether in a spot like this. Hopefully you run better next time.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • abospizza
      abospizza
      Basic
      Joined: 09.12.2017 Posts: 3
      VORPALF2F Thanks for math. the cards have no Soul we play on.
      steve
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 9,855
      Originally posted by abospizza
      VORPALF2F Thanks for math. the cards have no Soul we play on.
      steve
      No problem!
      Like I said, it is probably wrong anyway. I'm going to approach it a different way later, to see if it gives more realistic results.

      I'll post what I find...
      VS
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 9,855
      OK, I did a bit more thinking about this, and I realized that there are a number of different ways to look at this.

      First, this exact sequence of 9 cards (two sets of hole cards and 5 board cards) is 1 of 3,679,075,400 9-card groups that can be taken from a 52-card deck.
      So, the odds against this exact sequence occurring is 3,679,075,399:1

      But what if the suit wasn't hearts?
      What if villains hole cards were QQ?

      So the task then becomes "What are the odds against beating flopped 4 Aces by spiking a runner-runner royal flush?"

      Do we require that villain hold KK?
      Because you can also get a royal holding any two suited Broadways?

      I tried this a bunch of times, and the math is really beyond me.

      I'll try to find a reference, but in the meantime, if anyone is a math whiz, perhaps they could educate us all...

      Peace,
      VS
    • Lazza61
      Lazza61
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 23.03.2011 Posts: 10,411
      Hey abospizza,

      I feel for you, bro. Reminds me of this.



      Incidentally, if you watch the whole video, Lon McEachern states that the chances of quads vs royal flush are 2.7 billion -1.

      You also get to see Ray Romano. :f_drink:

      Cheers :f_drink:

      Laz
    • abospizza
      abospizza
      Basic
      Joined: 09.12.2017 Posts: 3
      Wow this has to be really long odds, if this happens at the WSOP main event or had occurred in the last 20 years we would have heard about it.
      Steve