SNG 6max 0.25€ T9s limp pot

    • Mayb3n0T
      Mayb3n0T
      Silver
      Joined: 03.01.2017 Posts: 223
      PokerStars - 25/50 Ante 6 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      CO: 38.58 BB (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
      Hero (BTN): 26.38 BB
      SB: 22 BB (VPIP: 68.75, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
      BB: 93.04 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)

      4 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.98 BB) Hero has T:club: 9:club:

      CO calls 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, SB calls 0.5 BB, BB checks

      Flop: (4.48 BB, 4 players) J:club: 8:spade: 8:club:
      SB bets 20.88 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, Hero ????

      This is an overbet that in other cases it's an easy fold, but this one puts me thinking. I just call this hand because of the odds (it isn't something that i do much, but sometimes on BTN i like to play against fish). What hand he shoves here? I exclude any overpair (it would raise preflop), and fullhouse or trips because i don't see any reason to shove on a favorable board so or he has some draw or a J. In this case my pot odds are around 45% and i count 13 outs (7 for fd and 6 std) so my equity should be 52% since if i call i see turn and river. So after evaluate everything i think this could be a call

      Cumps ;)
  • 2 replies
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 35,280
      Pre-flop I would most likely still isolate with a suited hand like T9s. As played his shove makes no sense, but it’s tough to give him a good range. Read less I would fold this even with the outs we most likely have to hit a straight or flush, but sometimes we are almost drawing dead if he has a lucky FH.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • Primrose6789
      Primrose6789
      Silver
      Joined: 01.07.2016 Posts: 1,771
      The question on this flop is: how many outs do we really have? If Villain hit an FH we are nearly drawing dead and only the Q and 7 can help us (so, 2 outs). If he hit some lucky trips, we indeed can draw to a str8 or the flush, but we have discounted outs. If Villain holds 78s or 78o every 7 which gives us the str8 is also crushing us because it gives Villain the FH. Or let´s say Villain holds A8o or A8s and the A comes on turn or river. He hit our flush but this gives Villain the FH. We are only slight favourite against a high pocket pair (about 55 %), besides, Villain could hold 2 clubs as well with a higher card or any club which blocks our flushdraw (lowers our chance to hit the flush). So: We actually don´t know how many outs we have. Besides, according to my personal experience fishes do such non-sense bets like this when they hit. We are in a limped pot. This means also that the chance that somebody holds an 8 is increased.

      Another factors are 1) we are nearing the bubble and 2) We still have a healthy stack. So: We are NOT in chip-EV-mode, we have risk premium here. That means: We need more equity to risk our chips than in cash game or at the beginning of an MTT. In order to risk our chips we need about 60 % equity at least! Do we have it? NO!

      Conclusion: We must fold here!