About how big a sample is a reliable indicator?

    • Jaissica
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Hi guys,

      since reading articles on this site and installing Elephant I have logged 6,170 hands at 10NL playing BSS (I consider my wallet to contain a virtual bankroll extension, intending to deposit if I blew the BR due to overplaying with only 5x BI).

      Over 6,170 hands (including many a hand of identified tilt loss) I am at +12.4 BB/100. I was much higher however had a very large downturn over this last weekend.

      About how many hands do you need to have logged to have a reliable indication of if you are a winning or losing player? My confidence was shaken to the foundations over the weekend as my BR shrank over 2,300 hands by some 260 BBs.

      Is it reasonable to expect that multitabling would cause a - 30BB/100 or more turnaround?
  • 3 replies
    • andyb43
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 903
      HI.........do you play on Titan as Jaissica?

      And no 6,200 hands is not enough.........I've played 15,000 and thats not enough either apparently.
    • csnmf
      Joined: 22.11.2006 Posts: 444
      to determine your true winrate is almost impossible you would have to play 100ks hands and even then it wouldn't be that accurate.

      To determine if you're a winning player is alot easier but it varies from circumstance to circumstance for example if you are crushing a limit for 10bb/100 over 15k hands you are most likely a winning player BUT your true win rate may only be 1bb/100 or it may be 20bb/100. If you are winning at 1bb/100 over 15k hands you could still be a losing player or you could be going through a downswing.

      Yes it is very common for a -30bb/100 downswing i have personally and i am sure alot of other people have had 4bi downswings within 1k hands. For example on one of the sites i play i have played 66k hands of NL50SH currently winning at 9.59 bb/100 but even within that sample size i had a breakeven stretch of 20k hands, so from this i am 100% confident i am a winning player but my true winrate? who knows.....

      So basically how long is a piece of string? obviously if you play 100k hands that is reliable but it's very tought to draw a line in the sand for the bottom limit.
    • Jaissica
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Hi Andy, yeah, Jaissica on Titan. I also have a PP account that I had before I found PS.

      Fair enough csnmf. I guess the best way is to review the major hands of the downswing and decide from that?