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Players flat 4bets, time to autoprofit.

    • Iscre4m
      Iscre4m
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.12.2017 Posts: 76
      Situation at 10NL 6max. :f_cool: Efffective stacks - 100 bb. I open AQo from CO and BU 3bets. I don't have a flatting range here, but use balanced 4bet strategy (30 % of hands i 4bet of whom 60% is value and 40% are bluffs.)
      So, AQ, JJ+ is in my value stack off range in aggressive (or rather normal) CO-BU dynamic. And AT, AJ, TT are in fluff range.

      Interesting spots come up frequently where Villain flats my 4bet. This is where my question is to you guys. Do you mostly check when you miss or do you bet? How big do you bet?

      I've found out that 1/3 PSB works reasonably well here and I get a ton of folds. Well, even 50% is a lot, when I need only 25% to be break even. :f_love:

      So, basically all my range of TT+, AT+ bets here 1/3 PSB (Pot size bet). Then I'm PSB left OTR, which is often a shove (depends really on opponent, might try to induce stuff).

      I noticed that these players flat AJ-AQ, JJ-TT here, so thats 32 nonpair combos and 12 pair combos, which means that 1/3 PSB can be used 100% of time, because on low flops they have a pair 12/(32+12) = 27%. So, bet might work 63% of the time. Nice!

      I was thinking if it makes sense for BU to flat 4bet with AA, but it doesn't matter really beacause then his 5bet jams will be weaker (some discounted AA combos).

      if he flats 4bet with AK, it gets even better, because then his nonpaired combos go up to 48 (AK, AQ, AJ). It's hard to make a pair (~33%). :f_biggrin:

      Flating 4bet strategy won't work if he decides to jam vs all my flop cbets because I only risk ~ 15bb vs 65 bb shove, which is great leverage for me. TT-AA are 30 combos, which can call shoves all day on low flops, AK, AQ, AJ, AT is 64 combos, which can bet/fold on low flops (or bet flop 1/3, shove turn). That would be 30/(30+63) so around 1/3 is pairs.

      PS. Don't flat 4bets 100bb deep. :f_p:
      PPS. That's only vs. CO, but when flatting stuff vs EP pair ratio gets better.
  • 16 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,020
      people do not fold whenever they don't hit a pair. that said at nl10 no one knows what they are doing either
    • Iscre4m
      Iscre4m
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.12.2017 Posts: 76
      No one knows what they are doing! :f_biggrin: That's funny. I agree 100%.

      Yes, they won't fold 70%, but I only need 25% or better and I'm not sure if I won't give up initiative by checking OTF OOP. I did it a few times too and I'm not sure whats my plan, well maybe a delayed cbet?

      I'll keep track on my success in HEM.
    • Iscre4m
      Iscre4m
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.12.2017 Posts: 76
      If Villain knows my strategy, then i'm probably in trouble and might have to also call some AK combos vs flop shove.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 7,951
      I do have a flatting range in this situation, and I think having 4bet or fold strategy only might have some problems.

      I already spotted one flaw in that thinking. You are risking money preflop to be able to bluff postflop. If we assume you open to 3bb, face a 3bet of 9bb and then 4bet to 22bb --> You just risked 19bb to get that profitable flop bluffing spot. This means that you are allowed to make some profit on the flop, but the expectation of the whole hand can still be negative.

      To illustrate this better I'm going to show you one example that is in Matthew Janda's book No-Limit Hold'em For Advanced Players.
      The button has to pay preflop for the opportunity to profitably bluff post-flop. So if the button opens to $4.50 in a NL$200 game with the :9c: :4s: and the big blind calls, even if he can profitably bet on the :Kc: :8s: :4d: flop (so a flop where he has nothing), he’ll still on average lose money for the hand. That’s because even if the EV of betting his hand on the flop is +$1, his overall EV for the hand will be to lose $3.50 − = − $3. $1 $4. 50 50 since he paid $4.50 preflop for the opportunity to bluff on the flop.
      So, If by brain is working correctly right in the morning before my coffee -> if the pot is 44 and you bet 13 and win the pot 50% of the time, your expected value OTF will be about 15bb, which would mean that even in that case you are losing money on the long run with this play.
      And ofc villains do not always fold whenever they do not hit anything. Could be a bit optimistic to assume we get 60% FE with 1/3 bet.
    • Iscre4m
      Iscre4m
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.12.2017 Posts: 76
      Hey la55i ! Thank you for a reply! I really appreciate it.

      Originally posted by la55i
      I do have a flatting range in this situation, and I think having 4bet or fold strategy only might have some problems.

      I already spotted one flaw in that thinking. You are risking money preflop to be able to bluff postflop.
      Well I intend to use GTO against some super aggressive 3 bettors and they don't stand a chance if they 5bet jam too much. I dislike calling OOP, but if it was vs SB or BB, then yes - I'd flat AQ at some reasonable frequency.

      Oh, no I'm not bluffing with AQ here, I intend to call a 5bet shove. So, It's for value this time. Other hands, AJ, AT, TT. I might as well check most of the flops. I'm not sure. This is a weird spot. There is so much money in a pot, that it even makes sense to open shove all turns and if I see Villain calling with AK on low flop, then I adjust by 4betting TT+ only. I guess.
    • CRI4BRA
      CRI4BRA
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2008 Posts: 154
      the critical moment is when he 3bet you

      IMO there's no 4bet not with aq in your hands

      assuming this isn't a min raise war but real reg battle

      you raise 2.5x from co, he 3bets you to 7.5x , and you 4bet to 20x, and he calls that 20x

      on the flop youre OOP with a stack of 70bb and a pot of 40bb. witch means you're screwed and what's worse, you're already committed before the flop hits the board

      if you wait to see flop with 1.8 psr and aq in your hand and your OOP, you're screwed

      so your decision has to be when he 3bets you . not after he calls your 4bet

      spots like this where you have to choose between losing a big chunk before flop or gambling the stack before flop is why i don't like poker

      ps. the way you present the situation seems like you have the upper hand, but you dont not by a long shot

      you 1/3 psb on flop and you get lots of folds from people who 3bet you IP and called your 4bet? how bad they must be, dude. i would insta shove over your 1/3psb

      youre with 43bb in middle on the flop and you'll be happy only on qxx flops (or aqx)
      because youre screwed on axx and you know why
      how many qxx flops there are. GL
    • Iscre4m
      Iscre4m
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.12.2017 Posts: 76
      Then start flatting 4bets vs me in 100 bb deep stacks and I'll destroy you. Or my range, rather.
      I might as well ship all flops with my eyes closed and you will hate your life.
    • figeljfigelj
      figeljfigelj
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 231
      Originally posted by Iscre4m
      Hey la55i ! Thank you for a reply! I really appreciate it.

      Originally posted by la55i
      I do have a flatting range in this situation, and I think having 4bet or fold strategy only might have some problems.

      I already spotted one flaw in that thinking. You are risking money preflop to be able to bluff postflop.
      Well I intend to use GTO against some super aggressive 3 bettors and they don't stand a chance if they 5bet jam too much. I dislike calling OOP, but if it was vs SB or BB, then yes - I'd flat AQ at some reasonable frequency.

      Oh, no I'm not bluffing with AQ here, I intend to call a 5bet shove. So, It's for value this time. Other hands, AJ, AT, TT. I might as well check most of the flops. I'm not sure. This is a weird spot. There is so much money in a pot, that it even makes sense to open shove all turns and if I see Villain calling with AK on low flop, then I adjust by 4betting TT+ only. I guess.
      Graph in the studio plz :f_drink:
    • insomnia666
      insomnia666
      Gold
      Joined: 31.07.2010 Posts: 3,198
      Playing without flatting range OOP is an utopia.

      Then start flatting 4bets vs me in 100 bb deep stacks and I'll destroy you
      I probably will do exactly that. With all my range.
    • Post removed

    • nsavov
      nsavov
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.09.2010 Posts: 1,060
      Tips for preflop play:
      1. Do whatever
      2. Hit:
      a. the flop
      b. the turn
      c. the river
      3. Ship the moneyz
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,728
      Originally posted by figeljfigelj
      Originally posted by Iscre4m
      Hey la55i ! Thank you for a reply! I really appreciate it.

      Originally posted by la55i
      I do have a flatting range in this situation, and I think having 4bet or fold strategy only might have some problems.

      I already spotted one flaw in that thinking. You are risking money preflop to be able to bluff postflop.
      Well I intend to use GTO against some super aggressive 3 bettors and they don't stand a chance if they 5bet jam too much. I dislike calling OOP, but if it was vs SB or BB, then yes - I'd flat AQ at some reasonable frequency.

      Oh, no I'm not bluffing with AQ here, I intend to call a 5bet shove. So, It's for value this time. Other hands, AJ, AT, TT. I might as well check most of the flops. I'm not sure. This is a weird spot. There is so much money in a pot, that it even makes sense to open shove all turns and if I see Villain calling with AK on low flop, then I adjust by 4betting TT+ only. I guess.
      Graph in the studio plz :f_drink:
      I see nothing in this discussion about hero's table image. (If I missed it, apologies). Furthermore, how is this strategy modified at 200 or 300 BB? If hero has a tight table image, or is deep stacked relative to a BB who 3Bets a lot, then the 4Bet bluffing becomes far more effective.

      Cheers,
      VS
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      i think it's clear that playing this 4b or fold strategy is inferior to having a call 3bet range. And AQ clearly fits within the medium strength category which means it's strong enough to call but too strong to bluff 4bet and too weak to 4bet/call 5bet.

      This sort of thinking was very prevalent about 6-8 years ago, whereby players at midstakes would happily 4bet/commit themselves with midstrength hands like 99/AQ with a 4bet and call a shove. And back then it was still ok because players were 5bet shoving half of their 3bet range, which means that a hand like 99/AQ tend to fare better against that wider 5bet range.

      These days players are probably shoving 25-30% of their 3bet range at the very most, while flatting a lot vs 4bets as well. This results in your AQ/99 getting completely dominated by such a strategy if you do choose to 4bet/call 5bet shove.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,728
      Hey!
      Good to see you!
      It's been a while.

      I hope all is going well.

      All the best,
      VS
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 7,951
      Originally posted by mbml
      These days players are probably shoving 25-30% of their 3bet range at the very most, while flatting a lot vs 4bets as well.
      I have been doing some population analysis at microstakes and so far it looks like people tend to shove a bit over 20% of their 3betting range.
    • DjolusVicenus
      DjolusVicenus
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.11.2009 Posts: 259
      I am not sure how is mine input valid for the discussion, anyway, this is how I do this...

      As standard CO vs 3 bet BTN range looks like this... 4bet 2,5x TT+, AK+ AKs+ Flat 77-99 , JTs, ATs-AQs AQof, KQs....

      If sizing is 4x and biger flating range is tighter like AQof, AJs-AQs.... If someone overcalls 3 bet I flat pairs to like 55,

      People on NL10 and NL16 have sizing tells... Most bet big when its value!

      If I have stats and I see that 3beter is some variant of reg, and have like 9+ 3bet stats, I put in 4bet range stuff like A2s-A5s, so mine bluff range is a bit vider....

      vs regs that have 3bet from BTN like 4-5 I flatting range is bigger, stuff like TT-JJ go in flating range and AKs is flat

      Post flop I bet 1/4-1/3 on like 75% flops... if I get any type of equity, I bet, If I flated pairs and flop is like 236 etc I donk to aggressor with 1/4 bet... this is really important... to make him pressure what to do and what I have.... sometimes I do check call, dont blank turn for 1/4pot

      People really like to overplay air hands...

      With some hands I straight up give up....

      Weak players like to bet 2/3 up to pot bet as bluff in 3 bet hands...

      overall most leaks villans tend to have in post flop game, and 4bet sizing are usually x3 with AA, KK...

      I literally didnt saw single villan 4bet like I do, 2,2x iP and 2,5x OOP

      I play on PS.