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QJJ9ss

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Party, $1/$2 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $57.62 (28.8 bb)
      BB: $268.13 (134.1 bb)
      MP: $230.55 (115.3 bb)
      Hero (CO): $241.52 (120.8 bb)
      BTN: $189.89 (94.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with :Qc: :9d: :Jc: :Jh:
      MP folds, Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, BB calls $5

      Flop: ($15) :2h: :3c: :8c: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $9.12, BB raises to $41.61, Hero calls $32.49

      Turn: ($98.22) :Js: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $47, BB calls $47

      River: ($192.22) :Ad: (2 players)
      BB bets $172.52 and is all-in, Hero calls $145.91

      Villain is likely rec, though no solid reads. Would you play this differently at any stage?
      Thanks
  • 13 replies
    • SeagalSteven
      SeagalSteven
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 894
      I think you can bet bigger ott. If villain has some random bluff he is folding anyway, if he has something of value he probably isnt giving up such blankish card that opens a ton of draws.

      But I think it's fine, river sucks but that's omaha. I think too strong hand to fold.
    • BluffinBilbo
      BluffinBilbo
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.07.2009 Posts: 871
      I also reacted to the turn sizing. I would bet at least 2/3, maybe as much as pot. You have a lot of cards to protect from.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Originally posted by BluffinBilbo
      I also reacted to the turn sizing. I would bet at least 2/3, maybe as much as pot. You have a lot of cards to protect from.
      I don't mind betting bigger on the turn but actually what are we trying to protect against here, in your opinion?
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,175
      We don't bet big only to protect. We bet big to make more money. :)

      When he checks turn, I don't think he has 88 often. And if he doesn't barrel 22,33 to blank turn, I don't think he is raising it on the flop. That deep his raise range should have nut outs, like A45, 456 preferably with a nutflush draw. A45+NFD has over 40% equity. If we give him a wider range like overpair+nfd, 2pairs+nfd,wraps+nfd and just wraps, he has around 20% equity. So against that range your half a pot sizing is +EV as long as you don't give him implied odds. As that is a big concern (like on this river) I would just bet bigger.

      What range do you give him once he check the flop and calls your bet? What part of that range he would have folded if you had bet $75? And if you were bluffing, would you really bet half a pot on that board?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      I definitely agree that we should factor in whether or not we're giving him implied odds otr and if we don't think we can fold on any cards maybe betting bigger ott makes a lot of sense.

      In terms of range for x/r flop and call turn (is that what you meant?), I'd say 4567 type hands make a lot of sense, with or without flushdraw. Some times, therefore, his flushdraws will have reverse implied odds for him if it comes in. But of course he can also just have some 89T hand with blocker to top set. I hadn't considered overpair + draw because I would tend to play those as a x/c (but ofc, doesn't mean that's how others would play them in SRP).

      I think the problem for us on the turn is that we don't know whether to assign villain a value (or big draw) range or just a recreational button clicking range. You see players x/r bare overpairs here to 'find out where they are'. There are so many hands that may be drawing incredibly thin ott that betting big has to be justified too. I don't think we can just give villain the nuttiest flop range (ie. worst case scenario for us) and say "Ok, so he's never x/folding the turn so I should just bomb it".

      I think that if we bet big on the turn it looks like we're never folding, and that may reduce the times when villain can come over the top with perceived feq and also it just looks stronger and so villain can x/f more easily. So I do think it's a tough spot. I can get behind a bigger bet (3/5-2/3?) but potting it here with top set and a good flushdraw on a fairly dry turn (because although this card brings in draws, they're not draws either of us should have very often) seems like a good way to burn $ to me.
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,175
      So you bet small to induce double check-raise when he shouldn’t have FE? You bet-called flop and bet turn, leaving SPR 1 if he raises. Can’t see a lot of hands doing that.

      I asked about his ”call half a pot but fold to 75” range as I don’t think there are a lot of hands that check-call 50% bet but check-fold to 75% bet after flop check-raise.

      Either he has air or he has a piece of the board. And by betting small you just miss value as that isn’t a spot to induce loose raise.
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
      Black
      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,237
      Originally posted by Kyyberi
      I asked about his ”call half a pot but fold to 75” range as I don’t think there are a lot of hands that check-call 50% bet but check-fold to 75% bet after flop check-raise.

      Either he has air or he has a piece of the board. And by betting small you just miss value as that isn’t a spot to induce loose raise.
      So the times you have just the Q-high fd or 546 or A532 or AA you bet small or do you still like betting big? Because I think our range is not nutted so it likely wants to not bomb it here.
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,175
      Why not check with those hands? I am just saying that if hero bets here, he should bet more than half a pot.
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
      Black
      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,237
      Originally posted by Kyyberi
      Why not check with those hands? I am just saying that if hero bets here, he should bet more than half a pot.
      That's a fair point but there's definitely merit for betting all those hands too, especially if we think villain is likely betting the turn with his hands that beat e.g. AA.
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,175
      Using two different sizings in possible, but it’s really hard to balance them. If we use one sizing strategy, I would prefer bigger sizing as we shouldn’t bluff here that often as we don’t have much FE.
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
      Black
      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,237
      Originally posted by Kyyberi
      Using two different sizings in possible, but it’s really hard to balance them. If we use one sizing strategy, I would prefer bigger sizing as we shouldn’t bluff here that often as we don’t have much FE.
      It's not like villain looks really strong when he x/r F, checks turn, so why should we expect not to have FE ott?

      I mean, i wouldn't be shocked if betting around 3/4 is the best size here, so not saying you're wrong with your approach! From NL i know you don't want to bet very big in this spot if you use only one size and want to have a wide betting range. Hence, i'm expecting this to play fairly similarly in plo, although that could be wrong.
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,175
      In Holdem turn equities are often very defined and one player is clear favorite. In PLO equities run much closer. If we assume that opponent c-raises flop with something (most likely a semibluff or weak made hand as he checked turn) then he has that same something on the turn. Once he checks, that often means he is check-calling. Sometimes he might check-raise (tricky tricky!) and sometimes check-fold. But if we give him a range for flop c-raise and then give him turn check-call and check-fold ranges, I would assume that he isn't going to fold a lot.

      As opponent has something, then betting small often gives him direct odds to draw his hand. If we give +EV spot for our opponent, we don't make any money in the long run. Some hands that opponent probably check-folds there are 2 pairs from the flop, and I think he is folding them despite our sizing.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      I'd be fairly surprised if a recreational player would x/r 2pair on the flop and x/f on this turn. Because in his eyes he still has the best hand most of the time. If the flop str8 or flushdraw came in then I would agree that we'd expect him to x/f bare 2p pretty often. Is it worth bearing in mind, too, that 2pairs are less likely on this flop, even for a fish? If so, then his hand contains more sets and draws (flushdraws only 2 of which dominate us, and wraps/oesds)

      Do you think the following range is a reasonable guesstimate for villain's {A45*, 22, 33, 88, Tc9c**, Ac*c**} being the hands that he will often continue with ott? The hands he doesn't continue with - I agree - he probably x/f to almost any amount.