Expected Win-Rate?

    • batmanbatmanbatman
      batmanbatmanbatman
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2009 Posts: 5,354
      Hello all,

      I am normally a FL player(at least I started like this) but last 2 days I made 2 SSS sessions of NL10. I played over 1000 hands. Yet I know 1000 is not good enough for having a estimation of the expected win-rate.

      In FL we have an article that says that the expected win-rate has certain certain values(in BB) over different limits. I could not find any similar article on NL so I am asking you guys what is your win-rate(BB/100)?

      I will be glad to see any kind of info, but I will edit this post with some standings for which will qualify only players that have a sample of over 30k hands in a certain limit.

      Preferred posting method is:
      winrate(BB/100)/ strategy(SSS/BSS/OTHER) / limit(SB/BB or NLxx) / #of hands(Xk).
      This is the info I would like to include in the first post.

      PS If you think that 30k is too big or too small please let me know, we can change it to something else.

      _batman_

      PS I hope I will enter the top soon :D
  • 5 replies
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      +12.8 BB/100 on 10NL (only over 6,355 hands - sorry!)

      -99.0 BB/100 on 20NL over 170 hands :( Got slapped back down a limit quick smart there.
    • PidKoker
      PidKoker
      Global
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 416
      Originally posted by Jaissica
      Got slapped back down a limit quick smart there.
      atleast you have the smarts and the self control to actually move back down a limit. :P
    • Bierbaer
      Bierbaer
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      I'd say whatever holdem game you are playing, you should at least have 50k hands to get a somewhat accurate approximation to your real winrate.
      But 150k to 200k hands should be more meaningful.

      But for starters you should be happy with any positive winrate.
      Just work on your game, if you play good poker you will win sooner or later!
    • toedder
      toedder
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2007 Posts: 215
      I would not bother with the expected win rate at the micro limits. Nobody is going to play an amount of hands that let's them see their true win rate anyway.

      The micros are about learning the game and improving your play constantly. If you are winning any positive amount, that's fine. Everybody should just be working on their game and trying to improve, and not be obsessed with win rates. Your win rate, as tracker software shows it to you, is just a function of the past. My "true" win rate now is different from two months ago, because I do quite a few things differently. For the number of hands the vast majority of micro players puts in, looking at your win rate is just being results oriented.

      You should look at the hands you played and the decisions you made. Analyze them. Deeply. Discuss them. Maybe care about your win rate when you are at a level you truly want to grind and have put in tons of hands. Until then, assume that you suck at poker and improve.

      Oh, I just saw that you play SSS. If you play such a rigid strategy, I can imagine there exists something like an expected win rate for a given limit on a given site (except that this might be altered by different table selection methods). For full stack poker, your true win rate depends on so many factors, it would be ridiculous to say that there is an expected win rate that's valid for everybody. And again, nobody will ever play a sample big enough to deduce something like a true win rate at any of the micro levels. This is just a waste of time. And that implies that you absolutely can't know what win rate you should expect, because you won't play that big of a sample neither. And that sample would probably be something closer to a million.

      PS.: I just read a post on 2+2, expressing the theory, that with the current state of online poker one could never know their true win rate. This is because the games are getting tougher constantly, as general play improves and more and more people are learning the game seriously. And because of that, even if you grind out a sick sample at a given micro limit, you'll never hit a long run because the games will be changing quite a bit during that sample. And that implies that a list with possible win rates by limit would have expired not too long from now.
    • batmanbatmanbatman
      batmanbatmanbatman
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2009 Posts: 5,354
      What you are saying actually makes a lot of sense. Thanks for taking the time to explain it so detailed.