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[NL5] AA 3bet pot on wet board

    • tschoa
      Joined: 22.12.2006 Posts: 2,795
      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $5.30 (106 bb)
      BB: $5.93 (118.6 bb)
      UTG+1: $7.56 (151.2 bb)
      UTG+2: $7.25 (145 bb) 16/11/300h
      Hero (MP1): $8.46 (169.2 bb)
      MP2: $4.14 (82.8 bb)
      MP3: $4.92 (98.4 bb)
      CO: $4.29 (85.8 bb)
      BTN: $11.33 (226.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with :Ad: :Ah:
      UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, 6 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.30

      Flop: ($0.97) :4s: :7d: :6s: (2 players)
      UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.65, UTG+2 calls $0.65

      Turn: ($2.27) :2s: (2 players)
      UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

      River: ($2.27) :8d: (2 players)
      UTG+2 checks, Hero ?

      I know flop bet is too small

      Turn cb ok ?

      River is hard to get value and I expose myself to a x/r with my capped range.
      Should I still bet? If so how much
  • 5 replies
    • lfcmichael
      Joined: 30.10.2016 Posts: 166
      This is FR, he’s in EP, and his stats look tight. I think we can assume he’s only opening good PPs and some other strong hands. His defending range against your 3-bet is therefore pretty small: maybe 99 - QQ, AQ, possibly AK if he prefers not to 4-bet that (but we block many Ax combos, of course).

      He should have very few flushes, so could we get some value from a worse PP with a small turn bet? I’m not sure.

      I doubt there’s a value bet on the river. He’s only going to call (or raise) with 55 or T9 and fold anything else. Having said that, I’d be a bit surprised if he defended those hands preflop, but it seems pointless to bet if we’re never getting called by worse.
    • DecMate
      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 1,466
      Pretty much agree with Michael.

      On the turn we can bet. He's probably called the flop with the range proposed by Michael, and lots of it contains a random spade. He'll call the turn with a pair+FD, such as QQs JJs ect. If he raises us it's an easy fold and we know where we stand, but if we check back and he bets big on the river it's a tough spot.
      I'd bet 1/2 pot on the turn and then give up.
    • Hawkstar123
      Joined: 24.12.2017 Posts: 8
      I would bet the pot on intuition, not much chance of a flush, would his range include 5s paired. if he had a set on the flop he would have raised more but im only a beginner
    • la55i
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 7,951
      I don't think the flop bet is too small, to me it looks more like too big.
      Sure the board is drawy but this is full ring, we play vs tight player opening from UTG+2 and calling a 3bet. I don't think it hits villains range very well.
      I think the turn should be bet because of the reasons DecMate mentioned.
    • nitrol
      Joined: 24.07.2010 Posts: 11,995
      The flop bet is big, having in mind that this is a 3b pot.
      I agree with the turn bet.
      On river when the straight got there too I would xb.