[NL2] Do we have the odds to call?

    • LacsapR
      LacsapR
      Silver
      Joined: 14.07.2011 Posts: 97
      Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $2.07 (103.5 bb)
      BB: $2.05 (102.5 bb)
      UTG: $2.12 (106 bb)
      MP: $2.03 (101.5 bb)
      Hero (CO): $2.03 (101.5 bb)
      BTN: $16.02 (801 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with :Tc: :Ac:
      UTG raises to $0.06, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.21, BTN calls $0.21, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.15

      Flop: ($0.66) :3c: :Qc: :Js: (3 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $0.32, BTN calls $0.32, UTG raises to $1.91 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.50, BTN folds

      I know this is a really strong move frrom villain to push vs2 but we have so many outs. Which outs would you count and do we have the odds to call?
      I'd say we have:
      9 Outs for flush
      +3Kings for a straight

      I don't think we can calculate an additional A so it's clear 12 outs and we get 2:1 pot odds, maybe even more if BU also calls. How much equity do we have with 12 outs and is it a good call?

      Turn: ($4.62) :9c: (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($4.62) :Kh: (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results:
      $4.62 pot ($0.16 rake)
      Final Board: :3c: :Qc: :Js: :9c: :Kh:
      UTG showed :Ah: :Qd: and won $0.00 (-$2.03 net)
      Hero showed :Tc: :Ac: and won $4.46 ($2.43 net)
      BTN mucked and lost (-$0.53 net)
  • 11 replies
    • lfcmichael
      lfcmichael
      Silver
      Joined: 30.10.2016 Posts: 131
      I’VE NOW REALISED THIS IS INCORRECT FOR A FLOP ALL-IN; SEE BELOW.

      12 outs gives us equity of 25.5% and our call is for 32.5% of the pot. Therefore, it’s not a +EV call. No implied odds here, of course, because we’re all-in.

      If we could assume that BTN calls as well, then our call would be 24.5% of the pot and it’s then just about +EV. However, it’s a big assumption, and even then the profit is small, so I think a fold was better here.
    • DecMate
      DecMate
      Gold
      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 1,292
      Most of the money comes from the fold equity we generate in these spots, and obviously we have none because we're calling off.
      So as michaeal said, fold is optimal but calling isn't a terrible play.
    • KatalonacX
      KatalonacX
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2013 Posts: 58
      In hands like this never calculate on A for an out, with 12outs you have 48% to hit, need 32,5 for good call, so you have clear call even against QQ. GL
    • lfcmichael
      lfcmichael
      Silver
      Joined: 30.10.2016 Posts: 131
      Originally posted by KatalonacX
      In hands like this never calculate on A for an out, with 12outs you have 48% to hit, need 32,5 for good call, so you have clear call even against QQ. GL
      Of course, yes. We are guaranteed to see two streets here, not one. Stupid of me.

      So it’s 1 - (35/47 x 34/46) = 0.45, so yes, we do have a call here, since we are on the flop. It would be a bad call OTT.

      I blame it on Sunday morning! 🙈
    • DecMate
      DecMate
      Gold
      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 1,292
      Originally posted by KatalonacX
      In hands like this never calculate on A for an out, with 12outs you have 48% to hit, need 32,5 for good call, so you have clear call even against QQ. GL
      Yep. Totally take back what I said. Was just churning out nonsense.
    • LacsapR
      LacsapR
      Silver
      Joined: 14.07.2011 Posts: 97
      Once I have the number of outs - how do I calculate if I can call or not as for example in this case?
      And is there a way how to do that quick and easy while playing?
    • lfcmichael
      lfcmichael
      Silver
      Joined: 30.10.2016 Posts: 131
      Originally posted by LacsapR
      Once I have the number of outs - how do I calculate if I can call or not as for example in this case?
      And is there a way how to do that quick and easy while playing?
      A quick way is the rule of 2 and the rule of 4.

      They are rough rules of thumb that give you the equity as a %. So you multiply the outs by 2 if you’re calling a bet to see one more street, which gives roughly 24% with 12 outs. Since you were calling all-in, and guaranteed to see two more streets, then you multiply the outs by 4 to get your equity. That’s 48% here.

      My more precise calculation above is 1 - (the chance we don’t hit an out OTT AND we don’t hit an out OTR), which gives me the chances of hitting on one or both streets. Of course, you can’t do that in real time, so we can just use the rough rules.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 7,611
      Originally posted by LacsapR
      Once I have the number of outs - how do I calculate if I can call or not as for example in this case?
      And is there a way how to do that quick and easy while playing?
      I have covered these things and much more in my video Quick Guide to Basic Maths but unfortunately it is a silver status video.

      But anyway, if you are on the flop, there is 47 unknown cards. OTT there are 46 unknown cards in the deck. Then you just divide the amount of your outs with the unknown cards.
      OTF with 12 outs it would be 12/47 = 0.255 ~ 26%
      ^^ those are your hit chances for the next street..

      You can also use rule of 2 and 4. You multiply the number of outs with 2 to get your hit chances for one street and multiply by 4 to get it for 2 streets.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 7,611
      I see that lfcmichael was faster..
      And when I wrote my reply I didn't remember that this hand was all-in OTF and we are guaranteed to see 2 more cards. So my calculations for one street is quite useless. If you want to know your hit chances on both streets, use the method he mentioned :)
    • nitrol
      nitrol
      Silver
      Joined: 24.07.2010 Posts: 11,786
      Just a small note: Do not forget that there is a player behind us yet to act. ( In this situation he fods but in some scenarios he may call ... )
    • GridironAssassin
      GridironAssassin
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.12.2014 Posts: 19
      On this board, you have 12 clean outs, perhaps more with the A (unpaired board, so no FH possible on club turn). Fist pump get it in. You have 50+% equity and are getting a great price 1.50/(.66 (pot) + .32 (bet) + .32 (btn call) + 1.59 (his remaining stack) + 1.50 (your call). 1.50/4.39 = @ 34%. Honestly, we are indifferent if the btn calls. We still have the same amount of outs plus two of the possible 3 sets would not have a club in them, therefore the sets dont block our outs. KK could be problematic but I highly doubt KK is overcalling with that action in front of him.