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[NL25] ATo turn weak TP into bluff

    • Bebabcsinya
      Joined: 01.12.2016 Posts: 76
      PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Converted at

      MP ($39.83)
      CO ($24.36)
      Hero (Button) ($31.61)
      SB ($32.42)
      BB ($20.59)
      UTG ($25)

      Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, A
      1 fold, MP raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, MP calls $1.50

      Flop: ($4.85) K, 8, A (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($4.85) 3 (2 players)
      MP bets $3.25, Hero calls $3.25

      River: ($11.35) 6 (2 players)
      MP bets $5.42, Hero raises to $15, 1 fold

      Total pot: $22.19 | Rake: $1

      MP: 27/23/13.6 249 hand
      R1 MP: 26 (38)
      Fold to 3bet: 50 (6)
      WTSD: 38%
      Aggr: 40%
      F: 54
      T: 35
      R: 13
      Fold to fcbet: 33 (6)

      Preflop this is the worst Axo card which I would have used in this situation for 3bet
      So flop decided to checkback, no oesd-s possible and I am blocking many fd-s so I don't need to protect my hand that much. From now on my plan was to call one and fold if he bets the river.
      But on this 6s river I might have got a good bluff situation. I think I am definetely behind here most of the time. So call would be a -EV move. The question is will he fold enough AQ,AJ and even his two pairs enough to make a bluff here a +EV move?
  • 3 replies
    • la55i
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,003
      When you check the flop I think he could be stabbing you very frequently OTT. His bet sizing OTR also suggests he often doesn't have a very strong hand, so I wouldn't say calling is a bad option. AX hands are blocked so I think his range should have more pocket pairs than AX hands. So now you are turning decent showdown value into a bluff.

      I can try to check this with a solver later today.
    • LemOn36
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,987
      I don't like ATo 3 bet personally
      But I guess if you don't mix things up and 3bet just strong hands and flat BU a lot it could be all right

      And river I'd just jam the $5 extra in, put hands like AQ AJ under more pressure, I find that people fold disproportionately more when you make it 4x and an all-in
    • LemOn36
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,987
      And I cbet 25-30% on the flop
      but this is just fine