Downswing or just I can't beat the game?

    • MrJamon
      MrJamon
      Basic
      Joined: 18.06.2006 Posts: 1
      Hi there

      I'm Mr.Jamon and I'm from Spain. This is my first post here, sorry it is in the DS section ;-)

      It is going to be long ;-) so, put yourself comfortable.

      I've been playing limit poker online since November 2005. First months it was just for fun till I realized I enjoyed the game but didn't won, so a start to read some books and forums, and getting more involved with the game, so spending more and more hours on it.

      On January I started to play "seriously", said so, I got Poker Tracker and decided to play on a solid strategy, reviewing my sessions after completed and so. I started at 0.25/0.50 because that was the lower limit in the site I was signed.

      Soon I started to win, and did so for three months solidly. My mates then began to tell me to move up limits, as I had achieved the necessary bankroll and played hands, so in March I decided to give a try at 0.50/1. Think were going as smooth as in 0.25/0.50 and I kept wining also in the new limit.... till May.

      On May, suddenly, the draws started to not complete, the top pair top kicker never were enough by the river, my flopped monsters (flopped straight or even flushes) didn't hold up till the river. I was beaten one and again by marginal hands catching 2-outers... all in a sudden.

      At first I though that I have just came into a bad run that was going to pass. I had read many times about them, and knew that it was possible to be a good player but lose in 5k, 10K stretches.

      My problem is that this stretch is lasting tooo long. It is now a 21k downswing, with -265 BB that is literally killing my confidence.

      My statisctics say that I am a TA-A player, 19% VP%IP, 8.5 PFR and 2,2 AF. I have a Went to Showdown of 31%, with a Won at SD of 52%, so, nothing strange around here.

      This is the graphic of January-June. I warn you it is a little scary if you're a begginer ;-)

      http://img225.imageshack.us/my.php?image=enejun7ql.jpg

      And this is the graph since May 1st (when all things started to go wrong). Observe there are session that seems to take me out of the red, just to go deeper the next one :(

      http://img54.imageshack.us/my.php?image=mayjun6ap.jpg
  • 1 reply
    • bahmrockk
      bahmrockk
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.09.2005 Posts: 6,769
      Hiho,
      you dont need to have big worrys: A DS for about 20k Hands can happen, especially at the lower limits where your villains are really agressive. 19% VPIP is a small SMALL amount too loose i think, but i am a shorthanded player, so i dont know the FR-stats to 100%, but you should look it up ^^
      52% W@SD is also a little bit small, so you should try to win more at the SD ;) seriously, dont worry - as you have quite a long winning-time it is doubtfully that you're a loosing playing at .5/1 - so heads up and keep on going :)
      I do remember quite well my first 15k hands break-even time, where i doubted on my abilities at all - now i am giving private coaching and regulary german Coachings, so dont worry ^^

      good luck,
      georg