MASSIVE downswing or am I that bad?

    • Bebabcsinya
      Bebabcsinya
      Gold
      Joined: 01.12.2016 Posts: 66


      So yeah guys I am totally speechless. Having a -4,65bb/100 "winrate" over almost 60k hands in 2018. I know that just crying and posting out downswings on forums doesnt help, I just want to know if this kind of downswing even possible, or I am having a lot of leaks in my play?

      Anyone who is wining over a big sample had anything like this?
  • 13 replies
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 7,612
      All of the hands from same limit? How big is the difference in your winnings and EV line in BBs?

      I have had many downswings and I have been bouncing up and down but those usually don't last tens of thousands of hands. Your green line looks surprisingly flat and red line is shooting down. You might not be losing -4.5bb/100 on the long run but you probably are not winning much either. Ofc there can be still a lot of variance in that sample and you get a good idea of your winrate only after about 200k hands or something like that. There might be some leaks.
    • Bebabcsinya
      Bebabcsinya
      Gold
      Joined: 01.12.2016 Posts: 66
      Yep same limit, 25nl everything went well around till 20 k hands and then it started to just go down as hell.
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,078
      Pretty solid graph. As everything is going quite smoothly, that graph indicates that you have leaks in your game. Most likely it is your nonSD. ”Normal” redline at small stakes is often breakevenish. If you could get it to breakeven, your greenline would go nicely up.
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,772
      You can still easily crush the micros with downward sloping redline really in NLHE
      I'd recommend to get a coach that does a database review for you
      Or try befriend a good player that'd share his database so you can compare
      There ought to be some blatant areas for improvement there just from general stats, I'd be surprised if there weren't.

      And then you take a look at winrates in specific situations that are much worse and take a look at specific hands.


      As to "Leaks" yes, yes you do have tons of leaks, everyone does, even the top players
      It's just about working on the ones that are costing you the most money and gradually improving. It almost never happens to me that I'd say I played a session perfectly, just better than last time, there's not enough timebanks in the world and you don't have to play anywhere near perfect to crush your opposition
    • figeljfigelj
      figeljfigelj
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 226
      Hi Bebabcsinya,

      I would say, your graph is a standard graph of standard micro "Reg". It`s not even a downswing, at best you`re solid BE player. (or worse)

      You should find some coaching or improve your game yourself.

      If you`re interested we can talk some stuff.
    • arthurbentley
      arthurbentley
      Silver
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 257
      I've gone 150k hands breakeven despite having a 8bb win rate overall. 60k hands is a small sample imo and from my own experience, losing for 50k hands happens every so often to me. Along with the upswings of course.
    • ilares
      ilares
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 25.10.2009 Posts: 23,043
      why not both?
      50kh is pretty big sample so yeah you should play way better than that
    • AgapieGheorghe
      AgapieGheorghe
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.07.2011 Posts: 1,291
      Originally posted by LemOn36
      You can still easily crush the micros with downward sloping redline really in NLHE
      I'd recommend to get a coach that does a database review for you
      Or try befriend a good player that'd share his database so you can compare
      There ought to be some blatant areas for improvement there just from general stats, I'd be surprised if there weren't.

      I agree a coach can help you but if you post your stats here i can asure you a lot o people can help you out and show you what you can improve.

      Stats you need to provide from your database : ( Post stats by position )


      Like this
      VPIP-PFR
      RFI
      3bet
      Fold-to-3bet
      cold-call
      Fold to cbet on flop/turn/river (Include for 3bet pots if you think it's a problem)
      Cbet on flop/turn/river (Include for 3bet pots if you think it's a problem)
      Raise vs Flop Cbet
      WTSD
      WWSF
      WSD
      4bet range (not frequency)
      Fold to 4bet
      River call efficiency
      win-rates
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 7,612
      Those are the main stats I always review first when I start working with my coachees, so it is a good start. Since the red line is going down a lot I think you should also check how much you are delayed cbetting, folding BB vs minraises, betting vs missed cbets, skipping your cbet and check folding.
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 11,078
      Nice way to get data is to filter hands where you open preflop and see the graph. And then filter hands where you call someone’s open raise. And see the results.
    • Noname81
      Noname81
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2013 Posts: 163
      I remember w34z3l mention in one of his videos that losing more than 10bb/100 hands may indicate a red line problem. What is your Non Show Down winnings at? Your Green line is is -4,65bb/100 and your red line is a long way from your green line. By estimation it looks like you are below 20 bb/100 hands Non Show Down winnings. Check out a series called "Red Line Rampage" here at Poker Strategies. Here is also a link to Black Rain blog post on Red line. There are ways to increase your red line with out compromising your blue line. This stuff is covered in Red line Rampage series.

      The link was removed. Just search "BlackRain 79 Red line"
    • Noname81
      Noname81
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2013 Posts: 163
      Originally posted by ilares
      why not both?
      50kh is pretty big sample so yeah you should play way better than that
      Great Advice. So helpful....
    • pdfbq
      pdfbq
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2008 Posts: 176
      That's now downswing you're showing.

      This is a downswing. It swings down :f_biggrin: