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[NL10] playing with AA in 3bet pot against top regular

    • Laci24
      Laci24
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.10.2009 Posts: 6,146
      Hi

      What do you think about the post flop play?
      The opponent is Velliton87, well known player in these games. He have been one of the biggest micro winner regular over the past few years.

      I saw the hand in snowie. Snowie told easy river call. His river Afq is so interesting, but the sample size is not big. And what type of hands can he bluff? :f_rolleyes: I think he will check on the river with JQs, JJ, Tx.
      He can bluff with 87s. Anything else?

      PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.16 BB (6 handed)

      BB ($24.93)
      UTG ($31.68)
      MP ($7.10)
      CO ($16.24) - Velliton87, 18/15/5,9, CO open:63 (19), fold to 3bet: 44 (9), WTSD: 27
      AFq: 30 (74), river AFq: 19 (16), fold to flop cbet: 0 (4)

      Button ($16)
      Hero (SB) ($16.11)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.36, 1 fold, CO calls $0.96

      Flop: ($2.88) 9, 10, 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.65, CO calls $1.65

      Turn: ($6.18) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.60, CO calls $3.60

      River: ($13.38) Q (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $5.84, Hero?
  • 7 replies
    • Shurikk
      Shurikk
      Gold
      Joined: 21.05.2014 Posts: 884
      Call. There are only few velue hands in his range: TT, T9s, some combos QQ. I don't think he would call to many flush-draws to river (we have blocker :Ac: ).

      river AFq is low, but he can overplay AQ0 and s or KQs here - many combos worse than our.

      We need only 30 % equity for profitable call and we defenetely have it!
    • Varune
      Varune
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 5,450
      Finding a fold here is pretty hard, but then again finding bluffs in his range is even harder.

      I would've probably (as played) bet this hand myself on the river, his low AFq tells me he's not stabhappy, nor is he going to vbet light. By betting he can still call with JQ/KQ or other 1pair hands that would've otherwise checked behind.
    • DecMate
      DecMate
      Gold
      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 1,478
      I think an x/c on the flop is a better option, After the flop hits we have 2 streets max and need to exercise pot control.
      Checking keeps his range wider and protects our checking range.

      As played; I think we have to fold the river. I don't see him betting this with anything we beat. In theory it's a call but in practice, at these limits, i'd prefer to nit it out.
    • Laci24
      Laci24
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.10.2009 Posts: 6,146
      Thank you the cool answers. :f_cool: These are helped me. :f_thumbsup: I am a little bit tight on the river when I need to decide about one questionable call.
    • nitrol
      nitrol
      Silver
      Joined: 24.07.2010 Posts: 12,022
      How big is the hand sample of villain?
    • MatoStar
      MatoStar
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.07.2017 Posts: 186
      I would prefer fold otr. He won't bluff on this river enough. Otf you can use maybe smaller sizing. And I think otr we can try thin value bet and fold to raise, but I am not sure about it but it looks reasonable, we will get a call from Qx hands, sometimes Tx, hands which he will usually check back.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      hmm 18/15 seems like a complete nit to me, so I wonder if he'll value bet QJ like that. You also block flushes with the ace blocker and you beat QT.

      I would also strongly consider value betting river, if he's unable to pay your Aces off then he's either too nitty or you are too nitty with barreling rivers. And when I want to value bet myself, there's no way I'm checkfolding. Also given his bet size it makes him much less likely he's super strong and more likely to have QT/QJ