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[NL2] Was villain really bluffing here?

    • RubbyDubby
      RubbyDubby
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2018 Posts: 193
      Now this was quite a rough table and I should have left but I decided to play so I could cheaply practice 10NL aggression.

      Calling my 55 there I do not know. Normally I fold these but because it was such an aggressive table I decided to call.

      BTN: 37 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
      Hero (SB): 102.5 BB
      BB: 116 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
      UTG: 347.5 BB (VPIP: 31.07, PFR: 20.39, 3Bet Preflop: 18.60, Hands: 104)
      MP: 189 BB (VPIP: 22.74, PFR: 17.81, 3Bet Preflop: 9.93, Hands: 374)
      CO: 103 BB (VPIP: 22.59, PFR: 18.25, 3Bet Preflop: 8.75, Hands: 678)

      Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5:spade: 5:diamond:

      UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold

      Flop: (8 BB, 2 players) K:heart: K:spade: A:diamond:
      Hero checks, UTG bets 4.5 BB, Hero calls 4.5 BB
      Hey.. float one... always fun :)

      Turn: (17 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:
      Hero checks, UTG checks
      I think, hey... I'm good here

      River: (17 BB, 2 players) A:heart:
      Hero bets 11 BB

      And really did NOT expected this:
      UTG raises to 36.5 BB

      Then I
      fold

      Now I sad something like lucky bastard or so and then he said: 'bluf'.

      I really do not believe that, I can not find a hand or a reason to bluff there as villain but maybe I'm overseeing some.
      I just think he had some Ax

      Do you see a bluff here for villain? maybe because I checked the turn?
  • 16 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,859
      It matters little whether he was bluffing or not. You can't even play the board here, since if he has anything >= 8 you lose.

      But FWIW I don't think he's bluffing.
      Reasons?
      :diamond:   The flop strongly hits a UTG pre-flop raising range.
      :diamond:   He checks back the turn. If he was bluffing, or had a marginal holding, he would need to bet here
      :diamond:   He said 'bluff" why say that if he was?

      BTW, I fold this on the flop

      Cheers,
      VS
    • MatoStar
      MatoStar
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.07.2017 Posts: 186
      I agree with Vorpal. Floating this flop seems very loose and you have only 2 outs, but reverse implied odds too against better full houses. And flop like this hits utg range pretty well. So easy give up and safe your money.
      And I don't think you should leave this table, because we have (probably) fish on the right side. And nl2 regs do many mistakes, you can still use beginner strategy and it will be profitable.
    • LeRoux90
      LeRoux90
      Silver
      Joined: 24.08.2015 Posts: 3,562
      If we want to float this kind of board, we have to use hands like QJ, QT, JT i think. Because we have solid blockers. Not sure if i like the bet river, vilain have many Ax playing this way, but in an other sense we won't win the hand even vs 9hi... I would bluff depending on the WTSD of vilain, if he have CS tendencies it seems very bad
    • CucumbaMan
      CucumbaMan
      Silver
      Joined: 13.10.2017 Posts: 243
      It does not matter if he's flopping or not, just fold these on the flop, your chances are slim against UTG range.
    • RubbyDubby
      RubbyDubby
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2018 Posts: 193
      I think calling here preflop is the real mistake.

      @LeRoux90 Thank you! You opened my eyes for a stat I have never used, mais est très important!

      I will go fiddling that one into my hud right now!
    • MatoStar
      MatoStar
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.07.2017 Posts: 186
      Originally posted by RubbyDubby
      I think calling here preflop is the real mistake.
      I don't think so, against UTG and MP we can have some calling range and pocket pairs are good for setmine, because Big Blind won't squeeze us more often. But 55 can be probably a fold, it depends on your ranges, but definitely calling here preflop isn't a mistake.
    • RubbyDubby
      RubbyDubby
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2018 Posts: 193
      I think completing my 55 is a mistake. I'm always OOP. very difficult to extract value when I hit and all other times I'm just folding (or start pissing around like here).

      Math:
      You hit only 1 out of ~8 so you'll probably folding 7 * 2.5 bb = 17.5 bb + all the squeeze folds you have to make so at least 1 call more. So you have to pay 20bb to get a mine triggered by the flop (and when you hit you only hit bottom set :evil: ).

      Against a bit better players.
      Say you hit then you might get one or two calls.
      Max you can win is the same 20bb but that is only in optimal conditions.

      In position yes, setmine the hell out of it but here as a complete in the SB, not for me.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,009
      Preflop it is a standard call for me. You could also 3bet, or you can fold but that is not the best option imo. It should be a profitable set mine.
      OTF floating is not good. You called this hand preflop to set mine, if the move was profitable you can just fold OTF.
      I wouldn't bet OTR, any 9high or better beats you.

      So I do not agree that preflop would have been a mistake. Imo those mistakes were made postflop.
    • RubbyDubby
      RubbyDubby
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2018 Posts: 193
      Hi Ia55i, thank you for your input. What do your stats say about this if I may ask?

      Here are mine (all my 177K hands, do not have more so maybe a bit of a small sample size)
      2NL and I am 4.54BB/100 up

      Setting: Preflop limp in SB
      77 -0.14
      66 -0.65
      55 +0.50 damn.. yes, 55 we can call :D
      44 -0.24
      33 -0.10
      22 -0.01

      So I agree with you, not a big mistake to call but... is it profitable?

      edit: Ow... this is the 1 bb limp. I'll try to get the call of an opener raise as well. maybe that one is better.

      Found it: here the stats
      Setting: Call preflop 2Bet in SB
      77 +0.42
      66 -1.81
      55 -0.11
      44 +4.79
      33 -2.72
      22 +0.23

      Which tells me the sample size is too small bot overall only +0.80

      To be complete
      Setting: Call preflop 2Bet in BTN and middle position
      77 +4.55
      66 +3.27
      55 +1.22
      44 +4.18
      33 +1.77
      22 -3.62
    • KatalonacX
      KatalonacX
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2013 Posts: 99
      OTF you could bet, to fold random hand that beat you, but when villiain raise it is never a bluff.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      1. Fold Pre, his raise size is so huge, and you are in the SB, not BB. 55 is toast here esp vs a decent player

      2. On this texture i think you need at least 88 or 99 to continue, any lower pair is too weak. Furthermore his size isnt even small.

      3. This is the bottom of your range so you have to turn it into a bluff. The river is very easy to play. Call with AX and fold everything else (anyway your betting range should be AX or low counterfeited pairs, maybe JT. QJ and QT have showdown value so you should check again on AAKKX board.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,009
      Hey RubbyDubby,

      If 177k hans is the total amount of your hands, then you would have only about 30k hands per position. That would mean you have too small sample to look at how some specific hands are doing. As you can see there are big differences in your winnings.
      You also have to keep in mind that looking at these values do not tell us whether calling preflop was profitable or not. It only tells us if you made any money with the hand. How you play your postflop affects this. For example in this hand, if callin pre flop is even marginally positive EV you should do it, but with a bad flop float you might make the spot negative.

      I also checked how I'm doing when I call a raise from SB with small pocket pairs and I do have similar big differences than you have (too small sample size also). But overall I'm winning 60bb/100. EV bb/100 is only 20 so I have been running well.

      So far I have included all small pocket pairs in my calling range SBvsUTG if I do not know that BB is squeeze happy. And at the moment I see no reason to change this approach.
    • RubbyDubby
      RubbyDubby
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2018 Posts: 193
      Hey Ia55i,

      I hope, I really really hope your +60bb/100 is a typo because when it's not I have to stop playing poker immediately and start another hobby (like dancing salsa).

      On a side note. Now i know where all my EV money is going :D . EV i'm +5.1/100 at 2NL

      Edit: or does bb means 0.1BB?
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,009


      Nope, not a typo.
      I have the following filters: hero is SB, facing 1 raise and hero's last action is call. Hands are 22-77.

      I only got 274 hands and you can see that for a long time I was break even or on the negative side so there is definitely a lot of variance. But in this small sample those hands are making me 67bb/100 and if we look at the EV line, it is at 21bb/100. After 100 more hands this can very well be back to break even. I expect calling these hands to make some profit if we play postflop correctly but not this much on the long run..

      Edit: or does bb means 0.1BB?
      Not sure if I understand the question. "bb" means one big blind. If you are using PokerTracker you might also see "BB or PTBB" which usually refers to PokerTracker Big Bet, that is 2 big blinds. If I have understood correctly those were used more when limit games were more popular.
    • RubbyDubby
      RubbyDubby
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2018 Posts: 193
      Ah :f_tongue:

      I misinterpreted your post. I thought you ment an overall win-rate of 60BB/100 but you ment 60BB/100 for the call in the SB with PP!

      Pfew!!!!!!!

      BB/100 in PokerTracker is same as yours. I do (money-won (in cents) / played-hands / 2 (is one bb) ) * 100
      So (16000 / 177000 / 2) * 100 ~= 4.5 so yes 4.5 big blinds per 100 hands
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