[NL2-NL10] NL50 How do I learn to fold AA?

    • williamtywong
      Joined: 19.01.2009 Posts: 123
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy hand converter:

      Known players:

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A.
      UTG2 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 3 folds, BU calls, 2 folds.

      Flop: (19.00 SB) 3, Q, K (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.00, BU raises to $6.00, Hero raises to $12.60, BU calls.

      I've read tons of times throughout the article that folding AA or KK made hands can make or break me. But I mean, it's much easier said that done. For instance, this hand, I've got almost 40BB waiting to blind out.

      1) Did I play this properly?

      2) I had a bad feeling about his raise on the flop, but I don't want to play by "feeling," so I'm trying to find a way to analyze this hand logically so that I can avoid making this mistake again.

      Here are the stats on villian (Over 65 hands only though):

      VP$IP: 27.69
      PFR: 3.08
      WTSD: 12.50
      W$SD: 100
      AF: 2.25
      CCPF: 25

      So looking back at this hand, and trying to figure out why I should fold it, I've come up with a couple theories:

      a) I should consider what he could possibly raise me with. He called my PFR, meaning he should have something decent (although I've learned that this is not necessarily the case in NL50). So, I think of the number of "strong hands" for this flop: AA, KK, QQ, AK, JJ, KQ. The only ones that I beat are AK and JJ (And tie with AA), meaning I'm only making money on 2/6. Should I fold then? This is my first line of thinking.

      b) Villain is a loose/passive. AF is somewhat medium. So since he's actually raised my bet post-flop, should I know that I'm behind?

      What do you guys think?
  • 9 replies