# [NL2-NL10] NL10 JJ would you fold

• Bronze
Joined: 07.02.2009
Should I fold there. Raiser was 0/0/28(VPIP/PFR/hands).

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy hand converter:

Known players:
MP2:
\$14.45
MP3:
\$5.86
CO:
\$13.99
BU:
\$8.18
SB:
\$1.55
BB:
\$13.86
UTG1:
\$11.30
UTG2:
\$9.50
MP1:
\$10.61

\$0.05/\$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 3 folds, BU calls, SB raises to \$0.55, Hero folds
• 3 replies
• Silver
Joined: 28.10.2008
Since he is short stack we can't call for set value here.

I guess with such a low vp\$ip (admittedly over a small number of hands) and the bet size he seems to be a genuine SSS player.

If he is playing by poker strategy SSS then his range from the SB should be
77+, AJ+ and KQ against which we have 40% equity. So a call is setting us up for a bad situation however we can save money if we hit a bad flop and probably take down his stack if we hit a decent flop. Not sure how to do calculations for this.

However if we push and he is playing by SSS then he should fold everything except for TT+ and AK. TT+ and AK which is 3.47%/8.45% = 41% of his range. So he will fold 59% of the time. In theory. Against the calling range we have 12% equity.

So our EV = He folds + He calls, we win + He calls, we lose.
= (0.59 x +\$0.55) + (0.41 x 0.12 x + \$1.55) - (0.41 x 0.88 x \$1.55)
= -\$0.14

Since our EV is negative we should fold. However this is assuming he is playing by poker strategy rules. If we think he will raise/call push looser then we probably make more money because every additional hand he calls is one that we are ahead of and increases our equity.
• Bronze
Joined: 07.02.2009