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[NL2-NL10] NL10 JJ would you fold

    • Rauno9
      Rauno9
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 57
      Should I fold there. Raiser was 0/0/28(VPIP/PFR/hands).


      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy hand converter:

      Known players:
      MP2:
      $14.45
      MP3:
      $5.86
      CO:
      $13.99
      BU:
      $8.18
      SB:
      $1.55
      BB:
      $13.86
      UTG1:
      $11.30
      UTG2:
      $9.50
      MP1:
      $10.61

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J.
      2 folds, MP1 calls, 3 folds, BU calls, SB raises to $0.55, Hero folds
  • 3 replies
    • Smileyphil
      Smileyphil
      Silver
      Joined: 28.10.2008 Posts: 488
      Since he is short stack we can't call for set value here.

      I guess with such a low vp$ip (admittedly over a small number of hands) and the bet size he seems to be a genuine SSS player.

      If he is playing by poker strategy SSS then his range from the SB should be
      77+, AJ+ and KQ against which we have 40% equity. So a call is setting us up for a bad situation however we can save money if we hit a bad flop and probably take down his stack if we hit a decent flop. Not sure how to do calculations for this.

      However if we push and he is playing by SSS then he should fold everything except for TT+ and AK. TT+ and AK which is 3.47%/8.45% = 41% of his range. So he will fold 59% of the time. In theory. Against the calling range we have 12% equity.

      So our EV = He folds + He calls, we win + He calls, we lose.
      = (0.59 x +$0.55) + (0.41 x 0.12 x + $1.55) - (0.41 x 0.88 x $1.55)
      = -$0.14

      Since our EV is negative we should fold. However this is assuming he is playing by poker strategy rules. If we think he will raise/call push looser then we probably make more money because every additional hand he calls is one that we are ahead of and increases our equity.
    • Rauno9
      Rauno9
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 57
      very good reply, thanks.
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Meh, he is looser in that spot, I am reraising and going broke vs the shorty, all day long.

      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar