[NL2-NL10] NL5 QQ Fold preflop

    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $5,10
      BU:
      $6,47

      0,02/0,04 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q:heart: , Q:diamond:
      Hero raises to $0,16, 2 folds, BU raises to $0,54, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1,68, BU raises to $6,47 (All-In), Hero raises to $5,10 (All-In).

      Flop: ($11,63) 9:club: , J:heart: , 9:diamond:
      Turn: ($11,63) 3:diamond:
      River: ($11,63) 8:spade: (1 players)


      Final Pot: $11,63

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows two pairs, queens and nines (Qh Qd)
      BU shows two pairs, kings and nines (Kd Kc)

      BU wins with two pairs, kings and nines (Kd Kc)

      Fold preflop???
  • 4 replies
    • Smileyphil
      Smileyphil
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2008 Posts: 488
      Hmm his preflop raise is 12% but I think for him to 3 bet/push he is probably only doing this KK+, AK. Maybe at a push as low as JJ+, AK. Against these two ranges our equity is 40% to 47%. We'll call it 44% (cause we can't be sure)

      If we fold when he pushes then our EV is as follows:

      EV(fold) = -$1.68

      EV(call) = (0.44 x $5.10) - (0.56 x $5.10) = -$0.61

      So if at this point both decisions are negative but a call actually produces a better value despite being behind.

      Could we save money earlier?
      I think a fold to his 3 bet would probably be too weak a move with QQ leaving us with the option of 4 betting (which we know is negative EV if he pushes but may work with fold equity) or of flat calling.

      Flat calling essentially leaves us with a problem that if an Ace or King arrives we have to check/fold or bet/fold and if they don't come we don't know whether our Queens are good. And we are out of position.

      About the only way this can work is if we play for set value. We hit a set roughly 12% of the time and if we miss we fold the hand. Assuming we can stack him (not true)

      This gives EV(Set play) = (0.12 x $5.10) - (0.88 x $0.54) = +0.13%

      But realistically we cannot separate ourselves from the QQ over pair if we get it and he will not pay off our set with AK if the board misses him. So this play is still going to have difficulties.

      I think perhaps your play is one of the best options looking at the alternatives however it seems to be one of those hands that is too good to throw away but unfortunately seems to be negative EV.

      We shall see if the judges have a way.
    • Smileyphil
      Smileyphil
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2008 Posts: 488
      Just found a similar hand I had like this in NL10 except I called his 4 bet hoping I would either have an over pair or set.

      As I played it I hit a set of queens and stacked a guy with AK.

      There is a link here if you want to see how it progressed but realistically I would've had to fold any flop with Ace or King and even with over pair I am not certain I am ahead.

      NL 10 FR - Tricky QQ spot.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Originally posted by Smileyphil
      So if at this point both decisions are negative but a call actually produces a better value despite being behind.
      This is why I push here.

      His 3betting range is too big to not 4bet, so you must 4bet. When you 4bet, you've put too much money into the pot to fold to the range of his shove. Therefor it sucks but stick it in :D
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Smileyphil
      Hmm his preflop raise is 12% but I think for him to 3 bet/push he is probably only doing this KK+, AK. Maybe at a push as low as JJ+, AK. Against these two ranges our equity is 40% to 47%. We'll call it 44% (cause we can't be sure)

      If we fold when he pushes then our EV is as follows:

      EV(fold) = -$1.68

      EV(call) = (0.44 x $5.10) - (0.56 x $5.10) = -$0.61

      So if at this point both decisions are negative but a call actually produces a better value despite being behind.

      Could we save money earlier?
      I think a fold to his 3 bet would probably be too weak a move with QQ leaving us with the option of 4 betting (which we know is negative EV if he pushes but may work with fold equity) or of flat calling.

      Flat calling essentially leaves us with a problem that if an Ace or King arrives we have to check/fold or bet/fold and if they don't come we don't know whether our Queens are good. And we are out of position.

      About the only way this can work is if we play for set value. We hit a set roughly 12% of the time and if we miss we fold the hand. Assuming we can stack him (not true)

      This gives EV(Set play) = (0.12 x $5.10) - (0.88 x $0.54) = +0.13%

      But realistically we cannot separate ourselves from the QQ over pair if we get it and he will not pay off our set with AK if the board misses him. So this play is still going to have difficulties.

      I think perhaps your play is one of the best options looking at the alternatives however it seems to be one of those hands that is too good to throw away but unfortunately seems to be negative EV.

      We shall see if the judges have a way.
      Very nice analyses.
      I like 4-bet, but then you also have to call shove, since you´re getting too good odds, against his likely 5-bet shove range.
      Sometimes you run into KK, AA- mostly flipping with AK, and some cases are crushing JJ.