[NL2-NL10] NL10 Flush bet/fold river

    • Menel
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Known players:

      0,05/0,1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with Q:spade: , T:spade:
      3 folds, BU raises to $0,30, Hero calls $0,25, BB calls $0,20.

      Flop: ($0,90) 2:heart: , 3:spade: , 8:diamond: (3 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks, BU checks.

      Turn: ($0,90) 8:spade: (3 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets $0,70, BU calls $0,70, Hero calls $0,70.

      River: ($3,00) 2:spade: (3 players)
      Hero bets $2,50, BB raises to $8,90 (All-In), BU calls $8,90, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $23,30

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      BB shows a flush, jack high (Js 4s)
      BU shows a full-house, eights full of deuces (Kc 8c)

      BU wins with a full-house, eights full of deuces (Kc 8c)

      Is this a bad river bet?
  • 2 replies
    • Smileyphil
      Joined: 28.10.2008 Posts: 488
      Hmm it looks like on the turn one or other of the opponents has an 8. Either the raiser or the guy calling (slow playing?) behind. I think therefore our hand has less outs than it appears (Optimistically we may think 3 Queens, 3 Tens and 9 Spades) however if someone already has an 8 then the Queen and Tens do not improve our hand enough and the 2 of spades gives an 8 the full house. Giving us only 8 outs.

      Pot odds: $0.70/$3.00 = 0.23
      Hand odds: 8/46 = 0.17

      As the chance of making our hand is less than our pot odds I think perhaps we should fold to the turn bet.

      However I think the river is probably a check/fold if we assume the BB and BU have both hit some part of this board.

      In the heat of the moment I would probably block bet here (and called the turn). Its a shame we don't have the time for detailed analysis mid-game.

      Over to the judges.
    • darkonebg
      Joined: 17.01.2008 Posts: 9,508
      You can call the turn, but a flush on a double paired board is just a bluffcatcher.
      I'd c/f this river without any reads.