[NL2-NL10] NL5 KK vs VTPA

    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $5,05

      0,02/0,04 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with K:heart: , K:spade:
      MP3 folds, CO raises to $0,16, Hero raises to $0,52, 2 folds, CO raises to $1,24, Hero raises to $5,05 (All-In), CO calls $3,81.

      Flop: ($10,16) 6:heart: , A:diamond: , J:diamond:
      Turn: ($10,16) Q:club:
      River: ($10,16) 5:diamond: (1 players)


      Final Pot: $10,16

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows a pair of kings (Kh Ks)
      CO shows three of a kind, aces (Ah Ac)

      CO wins with three of a kind, aces (Ah Ac)

      Should I have folded here versus this player(Very Tight Passive)
  • 6 replies
    • Smileyphil
      Smileyphil
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2008 Posts: 488
      The fact he is tight passive means that this sort of action is representing pretty strong hands. Exactly how tight passive is the player?

      If he is tight passive then he probably has quite a large range of hands that he would fold to your 3 bet but this basically depends on his ranges. At extremes he may raise 88+, AT+, KQ (9.2% of hands, SSS range) and fold to 3 bet all but KK+, AK (2.1% of hands) which gives (9.2 - 2.1/9.2) = 77% fold equity or for TT+, AQ+ (4.5% of hands) it is (9.2 - 4.5/9.2) = 51% fold equity.

      For the 4 bet could his range be as low as TT+, AQ+ (4.5% of hands) or is it much tighter KK+, AK (2.1% of hands). At this point I doubt we have much fold equity at all when we push because the 4 bet will essentially be a decision to go all the way. Against the wide end of this range TT+, AQ+ our equity is 67% and against the tight KK+, AK our equity is 47%.

      I figure our EV is as follows:
      EV (Tight range) = He folds to 3 bet + He calls we win - He calls we lose
      = (0.77 + 0.16) + (0.23 x 0.47 x +5.08) - (0.49 x 0.53 x 5.08)
      = -$0.02

      EV(Loose range) = He folds to 3 bet + He calls we win - He calls we lose
      = (0.51 x +0.16) + (0.49 x 0.67 x +5.08) - (0.49 x 0.33 x 5.08)
      = +$0.93

      So the looser he calls the better for our equity. Our real EV will probably lie somewhere between these values. If we add in a bit of fold equity for the push I am fairly confident that the hand gives positive equity and is well played.

      Sorry if the response was a bit mathematical. And it was probably unlucky to draw up against aces. It seems to happen all too often.
    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Dont know what has happened to the stats, but he plays:
      vpip 12
      prf 8
      3bet 4
      4bet 2
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      How many hands do you have of him?

      @phil

      I don't think you can possibly give this guy a TT+, AQ+ range for his 4bet :tongue:
      Actually, I don't know many TAGs (this guy is more like ultra tight) on micro SH(nl5) who shoves AQ or TT preflop :P

      More realistic is the standard QQ+, AK+. He might be even as tight as KK+, but I don't care, I always go broke with KK anyway.... always

      so nh :)
    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      I had about 1500 hands on him at this time and i had never seen him 4bet with less than KK.
    • Smileyphil
      Smileyphil
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2008 Posts: 488
      I'm guessing then EV wise its pretty close but I would probably lob all my chips in with KK. Worst case situation we are just behind but there is always the chance his patience has come to an end.

      I think nh.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I´d get it all-in.
      He should still shove with QQ, AK which is enough for getting it all-in pf.