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EARLY GAME - should fold & raise

    • Arnalsan
      Arnalsan
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.03.2010 Posts: 579
      Hey,

      In the stt early game with villain in mp1 was playing like a maniac and with AT I decided to isolate him. I understand I'd a good equity versus his range, but, I've a doubt regarding if this move if this good or not in early game. I raised to not concede good odds for BB call.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 57.24% 53.88% 3.37% AhTh
      MP3 42.76% 39.39% 3.37% 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, JTs, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, KTo+, QJo, JTo

      Chip expected value of your call (cEV) = 1340*57,24% - 655 = 112 CEV

      Monetary expected value of your stack after a call ($EV) = probability of winning the hand * monetary expected value of your stack after call & win + probability of losing the hand * monetary expected value of your stack after call & lose

      57,24% * 16.4381 + 42,76% * 0 = 9,41

      $EV of your stack after a fold = 11.7133 > $EV of your stack after a call = $9,41
      $EV(Call) = -$2,30



      Poker Stars, $0.44 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (SB): 1,655 (55.2 bb)
      BB: 2,010 (67 bb)
      UTG+1: 1,675 (55.8 bb)
      UTG+2: 1,325 (44.2 bb)
      MP1: 655 (21.8 bb)
      MP2: 1,350 (45 bb)
      MP3: 1,605 (53.5 bb)
      CO: 1,770 (59 bb)
      BTN: 1,455 (48.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with :Ts: :As:
      2 folds, MP1 raises to 655 and is all-in, 4 folds, Hero raises to 1,655 and is all-in, BB folds

      Flop: (1,340) :3s: :7h: :3h: (2 players, 2 are all-in)
      Turn: (1,340) :6h: (2 players, 2 are all-in)
      River: (1,340) :Kh: (2 players, 2 are all-in)

      Results:
      1,340 pot
      Final Board: :3s: :7h: :3h: :6h: :Kh:
      Hero showed :Ts: :As: and lost (-655 net)
      MP1 showed :5c: :Ah: and won 1,340 (685 net)


      Mathematically it was OK, however, there is always the question about it.

      Thanks for commenting, it helps me to better understand the concepts.
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