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[NL10] Difficult decision on the river

    • JanssenBatista
      JanssenBatista
      Gold
      Joined: 04.11.2015 Posts: 119
      How would you play?

      PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 327 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 20.29, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 72)
      SB: 81.5 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
      Hero (BB): 104.9 BB
      UTG: 239.3 BB (VPIP: 26.86, PFR: 21.71, 3Bet Preflop: 3.08, Hands: 181)
      MP: 170.4 BB (VPIP: 20.67, PFR: 16.20, 3Bet Preflop: 6.49, Hands: 188)
      CO: 103 BB (VPIP: 27.78, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 20)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:club: A:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, BTN calls 6.5 BB

      Flop: (18.5 BB, 2 players) Q:club: 9:heart: 4:heart:
      Hero bets 13 BB, BTN calls 13 BB

      Turn: (44.5 BB, 2 players) J:diamond:
      Hero checks, BTN bets 22.5 BB, Hero calls 22.5 BB

      River: (89.5 BB, 2 players) T:diamond:
      Hero checks, BTN bets 31.5 BB
      fold

      BTN wins 85.5 BB
  • 5 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,523
      As played, good fold.
      Since it looks like you give up on the turn, BTN takes over and pushes you off the pot.

      I don't know if betting the turn is the right move either.

      I'm curious to see what others think about this hand

      All the best,
      VS
    • cathal08
      cathal08
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.02.2010 Posts: 25
      Not a difficult lay down at all. He called your 3 bet pre flop so he is mostly likely playing AK KK QQ KQ all have you beat even JT has you beat there is literally nothing you are ahead of on the river and the only reason someone would call would be not wanting to let go of Aces.
    • ben002
      ben002
      Silver
      Joined: 03.03.2018 Posts: 59
      Hi! :f_drink:

      It might depend a lot on how we define his preflp range (I used this one with small modification) but I would bet OTT:
      I think he has quite a large continuing range OTF with some TP/overcards/flush-draws/straight-draws/gut-shots and a lot of backdoor-potential. The J OTT improves most of his hands to better draws. The only hands which I see in his range, which improved to something better then your AA are JJ (3 combos) QJs (2) and KTs (4) while he probably wouldn't have called the flop with KsTs and KdTd. Other combos which beat you are QQ (3) and 99 (3). Total = 15. Which should be less then half of his continuing range as the many draws and pairs he has now give him a lot of incentive to call. I think you also wouldn't want to let him realize all this equity for free. So I opt for the Turn-bet.

      If we give him the following continuing range for a Turn-Cbet, you still have 61.58% equity against it (If we add QJo and count all the combos of KTs it still is 55.57%, maybe a bit less when we remove some draws. If we add KJo and KTo it goes down to 50.67%. So it probably depends a lot on his preflop-range and on how willingly he would call OTF with a gut-shot).
      QQ-99,KdKh,KdKs,KdKc,AQs,KQs,QTs+,J9s+,98s,AdKd,AhKh,AhJh,KhJh,KcJc,AhTh,KhTh,KcTc,Ah5h,Ah3h,Ah2h,AQo,KQo,AhKd,AsKd,AsKh,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs (copied from equilab)
      I like the fold OTR.
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 37,440
      I have moved your hand to our hand discussion board, because it’s fits better there.
      I would defiantly bet the turn on a wet board like this for thin value and protection. Now I would fold the river as well or you have good reads on him he can change a flush draw in to a bluff.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • pokerboy198229
      pokerboy198229
      Silver
      Joined: 20.08.2011 Posts: 1,587
      Yep bet fold the turn because on this board he would check call all his worse hands and raise all his best hands for protection. And we check folding river