[NL2-NL10] NL25 FR - KQo - 2 overcards - odds and outs

    • PWS
      PWS
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.01.2008 Posts: 21
      Known players:
      Position
      SB
      CO

      0,1/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with K:club: , Q:spade:
      4 folds, CO calls $0,25, Hero raises to $1,25, SB calls $1,15, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($3,00) 6:diamond: , 4:club: , 6:club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1,50, SB raises to $5,75, Hero calls $4,10 (All-In), SB gets uncalled bet back.

      Turn: ($14,20) Q:heart:
      River: ($14,20) 4:heart: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $14,20


      I put his hand on a small overpair like 88.

      so I put myself on 6 outs and have a backdoor flushdraw.

      If I hadn't made a continuation bet before his rasise, I would fold.

      I'm new to the odds and outs calculations, so I'm not sure this is profitable or not in the long run, giving that my read is correct?

      him having trips or a flush draw would ofcourse make it unprofitable in the long run.

      I have around 25-30% chance of winning, and i pay around 27% of the put with my last call, does this mean, that in the long run, it goes out to no win and no loss?

      I was feeling lucky at the time, having a 218 hand session with 58BB/100.
  • 8 replies
    • TheBu11d0g
      TheBu11d0g
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2008 Posts: 2,019
      Hey PWS,

      I just getting into odds and maths myself so i hope this is correct :D

      You're getting odds of 3.1 for your 6 outs over 2 streets (turn & river to come) but only getting pot odds of 2.1 so if im correct then the most profitable play is to fold.

      If i've got the calculations wrong then i apologise in advance.

      Regards,
      -Steve
    • PWS
      PWS
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.01.2008 Posts: 21
      Hey TheBu11d0g,

      thanks for your reply.

      the pot odds must be (14.2-4.1):4.1 = 10.1:4.1 = 2.5:1

      but does the back door straight not increase the odds of winning, to hit a club on turn would be (47-10):10 = 3.7:1 and again on the turn its (46-9):9 = 4.1:1, is it correct, that this means that there is 7.8:1 to get the flush?

      would this combined with the 3:1 from the overcards give odds of around 2:1? I'm not sure how to combine these odds.

      but had I made the correct cbet of 2$ and not 1.5$, my pot odds would be (14.2-3.6):3.6 = 10.6:3.6 = 3:1 and thus making my call profitable.
      (is that actually the reason for a 2/3 pot size bet instead of 1/2 pot?)

      from this I will in the future make higher cbets, to make the odds for my opponent and my self intended by the SSS strategy.
    • TheBu11d0g
      TheBu11d0g
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2008 Posts: 2,019
      Hey PWS,

      When calculating the pot odds you can't take the villians 0f $5.75 into account, you can only take $4.10 of it into account as that is your effective stack to call so the remaining 1.65 gets returned to him.

      So you have 3.00 + 1.50 + 4.10 = 8.60 / 4.10 = 2.1:1

      And if you add the flush draw to the overcards you have 10 outs for the flush draw + 4 outs for the overcards = 14 outs.

      So 14 outs = 1:1 over two streets making a call profitable.

      If i'm correct that is :D .

      Regards,
      -Steve
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Hi PWS,

      My instinct says just fold; don't call his raise. It will be unprofitable to get into odds outs calcs on this sort of hand/board.

      Your draw, for overcards K or Q is not a strong draw. So, even if you get your Q or K, you can't be sure you have him beat (as you normally could if it was a flush or straight draw).

      Yes, he might have 8,8, but he might also have K,Tc (which is within his range) and in that case he will hit his flush draw before you ever hit your backdoor flush. Your odds are only 22.5:1 for the backdoor flush (this is an approximation according to the odds and outs chart), so they won't help you much here - you can effectively ignore them in deciding whether to call his raise.

      When working out the odds, you can't add the odds for hitting a club on each street; you have to multiply them. So, the chances of hitting two clubs in a row are actually much less than those of hitting one club...and then another club (if you see what I mean).

      The actual odds calc is something like this:

      Odds of first club are: (47-10):10 = (3.7:1). The 'individual' odds of the second club are (46-9):9 = 3.7:0.9 = (4.1:1). But, the combined odds are
      3.7:1 * 4.1:1 = 15.2:1 i.e. only about 6% chance.

      Your odds for overcards are, for the sake of argument, (47-6):6 = 6.8:1 and then (46-6):6 = 6.7:1. You can add these together (because either an overcard on Turn or River is fine - you don't need both as with the backdoor flush). So you get: (6.7 + 6.8)/2 = 6.75:2, i.e. 3.4:1.

      Finally, you add this to your backdoor flush odds, to get: 3.4:1 + 15.2:1. Adding these is tricky (all fractions and lowest common denominators) so easier to add the %. Then you get 29.4% + 6.6% = 36% chance.
      (In fact it's less than this as you'll need to discount at least 1 of your outs - because the Qc might give your opponent a flush if he's holding 2 clubs).

      I'm not enough of a mathematician to be able to explain properly why you multiply rather than add the probabilities, but it's something along the lines of this: You're not weighing the probability of two separate outcomes which you can add together to increase your odds, but rather one outcome (i.e. "two clubs in a row"). Intuition may help: The odds of throwing a six on a dice are 1 in 6 (5:1). The odds of throwing another six are the same 5:1, but the odds of throwing the combination "two sixes in a row" is intuitively - and actually - much lower, i.e. 25:1.

      I've probably explained that really badly, but in any event, I think you can just stick to the rule: if you have trash on the flop, you should make a c-bet if you are heads up but then you should invest no more money if opponent shows aggression by either calling or raising your c-bet. :D

      Tim
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Hey PWS,

      I don't think you need to get into out/odds mathematics here.

      Stick to the basic: c-bet 2/3 pot on flop, if that = 1/2+ your stack, then push directly.
      You had $4,10 on flop and 2/3 pot-size would have been $2, so just push flop. And if you decide to just bet $2, simply fold to any resistance.

      You are raising from Bu with just a CO limper, villain could be calling you with a lot less than 88.

      good luck!
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi PWs,

      Easiest bet/fold with a 25bb+ stack afai can see?
      You get like 2:1 which means 9 outs which you cant ever get with KQ on a board like 646cc

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • PWS
      PWS
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.01.2008 Posts: 21
      TheBu11d0g,
      I had made a bet of 1.5 before the call of 4.1, therefore he only gets (5.75-(1.5+4.1))=0.15 returned.


      thank you Tim64,

      that really helped me understand.

      I would normaly fold this hand too, but now that I try to think of the odds, it seemed ok at the time.

      it does make sence to multiply the odds for getting 2 cards.


      dandycal

      you're right, a push would have given me more fold equity.


      Gerv

      yes I had too much money at the table, with 25BB, I would go all in on the flop and yes to clubs and a pair on the board, does make my move bad.


      I'll just fold the close calls in the future, dont have the time to calculate the right odds wenn played 6+ tables, and less gets too little action.
    • Meiffert
      Meiffert
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.10.2008 Posts: 151
      Hi,

      Originally posted by PWS
      but does the back door straight not increase the odds of winning, to hit a club on turn would be (47-10):10 = 3.7:1 and again on the turn its (46-9):9 = 4.1:1, is it correct, that this means that there is 7.8:1 to get the flush?

      would this combined with the 3:1 from the overcards give odds of around 2:1? I'm not sure how to combine these odds.
      You get this one wrong. You have to multiplay the probabilitise for your flush cards because you need to hit both at once.
      Hence the chance of your flush to hit is (10/47) * (9/46) = 0,042 which gives you odds of about 1:23.
      As 1 out has odds about 1:22, the probability is very close and you can just say that your backdoor flush draw is like having one more out, which gives you 7 outs total. You can get the odds of that yourself from this point I believe.

      You have just about break even equity against the hand you expect him to have (overpair lower than your KQ) where your call would be borderline, increasing your variance, but still kinda ok. The problem is, he can very well have many other holdings like trips, or bigger overpairs (QQ+), possibly also with a higher club (Ac6 or something) and then you are just toasted.
      I would definitely recommend you to let this one go and fold.

      Originally posted by PWS
      but had I made the correct cbet of 2$ and not 1.5$, my pot odds would be (14.2-3.6):3.6 = 10.6:3.6 = 3:1 and thus making my call profitable.
      (is that actually the reason for a 2/3 pot size bet instead of 1/2 pot?)
      Coulda shoulda woulda. ;-)
      You made a bet you did, there is no point of calculating the pot odds for another one.

      About the size of a c-bet. It depends mainly on the board. If it is very dry, you can bet less (like half the pot) because on a bord K82 rainbow there are no draws and your oponent has only few outs for improving his hand. When you have AK or KQ and he has JJ, he has only 2 out left, so he can't call profitably even the bet of half the pot.

      On the other hand if the bord is something like JT8 with 2 diamonds, there is huge chance that he might have a flush draw, an openended straight draw or at least a gut shot with overcards.
      You make profit, when your opponents make mistakes. It is no mistake to call a small (half pot) bet when you have about 10 outs to make the best hand. When you want to force him to make a mistake you need him to pay more for seeing another card so you need to bet more.



      In this hand you have 2 choices on the flop in my opinion which are very close in equity and I can't really decide which one is better.
      1. Push all-in. It is basicly what the basic short stack strategy suggest as 2/3 of the pot are $2 and you only have 4.10 left, so the standard c-bet is just about half of your stack, leaving you more or less commited when you bet those 2 (you can hardly fold anymore then anyway) making the direct push a better choice. This way you maximalize your fold equity obviously.
      The main problem of this aproach is that you hardly have any fold equity against pocket pairs wich are now either overpairs, boats, quads or maybe smaller pockets, but he still won't really believe you that you hit this flop hence even with 22 he might not fold.
      2. Since the board isn't very draw heavy (there is only the club flush draw), you don't really have to "protect" your hand that much and can just c-bet smaller like half the pot. When you choose this aproach though, you are sacrificing some of your fold equity in order to save some money when your opponent really has a pair and plays back. When you do this though, you must be ready to give it up and fold to resistance.

      As I said I can't really decide which way is better, I would personaly probably go for the second option. You shouldn't bet small and then call though. As you played, you lost most of your fold equity and gained nothing.