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[NL2] KQo on the BTN vs pre flop raiser

    • DannyHorsley
      Joined: 03.12.2014 Posts: 188
      Hi all,

      Sorry for yet another post, I'm just determined to turn my game into a winning direction and would love some help/advice.

      Basically I'm on the BTN with KQo and call a raise from MP+1. I flop mid pair and call a standard cbet with one overpaid on the board. I hit trip Q's OTT and villain checks. I make a 2/3 pot bet and he re-raises to nearly 3x my bet. I call and the river bricks. He bets 1/2 pot and I call and am all-in.

      Looking back I am fairly happy with me pre flop call.
      I also think the call on the flop was justified given that I had hit mid pair and my opponent is fairly aggressive, cbetting very often.
      He checks the turn which is quite suspicious given his aggression, however I feel that the Q scared him and it was a great card for me.
      The river didnt change much and he puts me all in, continuing his aggression.

      I put him on any two pair, any ace and maybe even a queen with a weaker kicker. I thought I may have been beat by a QA.

      Please let me know your thoughts!

      888 Poker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BTN): 103 BB
      SB: 174 BB (VPIP: 17.78, PFR: 8.89, 3Bet Preflop: 1.49, Hands: 228)
      BB: 95.5 BB (VPIP: 9.72, PFR: 5.90, 3Bet Preflop: 2.11, Hands: 289)
      UTG: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 65)
      UTG+1: 60 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
      MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.49, PFR: 0.47, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 215)
      MP+1: 139 BB (VPIP: 20.22, PFR: 14.61, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 89)
      MP+2: 156 BB (VPIP: 24.21, PFR: 14.47, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 320)
      CO: 63 BB (VPIP: 10.08, PFR: 7.75, 3Bet Preflop: 4.65, Hands: 129)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:spade: K:club:

      fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 3 BB, MP+2 calls 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

      Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) A:spade: J:club: Q:club:
      MP+1 bets 7.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 7.5 BB

      Turn: (25.5 BB, 2 players) Q:heart:
      MP+1 checks, Hero bets 15 BB, MP+1 raises to 42.5 BB, Hero calls 27.5 BB

      River: (110.5 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond:
      MP+1 bets 55 BB, Hero calls 50 BB and is all-in
  • 2 replies
    • la55i
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,234
      It is quite difficult to fold trips here but now when I think of this it might be the best move.

      Turn raises are often quite value heavy. This is NL2 full-ring and villain looks tight-ish over a small sample. So I wouldn't put that many bluffs in his range. He can check the turn to trap you if he hits the nuts and feels very comfortable with his hand. He could still have AA,JJ,QJ,AQ. He doesn't have that many 2 pairs hands. Or actually now any Ax makes 2 pair, but I don't think he should be raising here with AJ. Also giving him any Ax seems a bit loose. And what comes to weaker Qx hands, if we consider his position and his stats, I think QTs should be the weakest Qx hand he has. We can add some bluffs to his range but I wouldn't add too many.

      Board: AsJcQcQh
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 37.50% 29.24% 8.26% { KcQs }
      MP3 62.50% 54.24% 8.26% { AA, JJ, AJs+, KQs, KTs, QTs+, AcTc, AQo, KQo }

      I quickly put him on that range. Us blocking some of his flush draws with Kc might be not so good also.
    • Alleen86
      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 5,334
      The only worse hand he has which would play like that is probably QT, but I feel he has alot more fullhouses in his range. I don't think he has much (if any) bluffs since it's full ring and it's multi-way pot. I believe we can even bet/fold the turn.