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[NL25] AA sqz ip 165BB effective vs donk turn

    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,107
      MP playing one table, CO playing two tables

      PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BTN): 166.2 BB
      SB: 112.7 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
      BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.44, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 38)
      UTG: 206.3 BB (VPIP: 16.38, PFR: 15.02, 3Bet Preflop: 11.29, Hands: 300)
      MP: 116.7 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 21)
      CO: 450.8 BB (VPIP: 9.52, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 23)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:spade: A:diamond:

      fold, MP raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, Hero raises to 14.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, CO calls 11.5 BB

      Flop: (33.5 BB, 2 players) K:spade: 4:heart: 7:club:
      CO checks, Hero bets 18.5 BB, CO calls 18.5 BB

      Turn: (70.5 BB, 2 players) J:spade:
      CO bets 40 BB, Hero calls 40 BB

      River: (150.5 BB, 2 players) 9:diamond:
      CO bets 104.9 BB, fold

      CO wins 143.7 BB

      i squeeze large because we're a bit deeper and they don't have sample on me, fuck balance.
      CO's range is probably a lot of pocket pairs? i feel we should be folding turn here, really don't see what we beat.
      on that note, we probably can't play for stacks here (vs AK, which we heavily block? KQ?), so check at some point?

      i probably intended to check the river, but he may just fold turn with weaker hands when there's the threat of a third barrel for stacks, don't really like checking the turn either which puts us in an awkward spot when he bets the river.
      so probably just bet smaller on the flop, which also should fit in nicely with our overall flop strategy.
  • 5 replies
    • SDK1987
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 38,940
      It’s weird he’s leading in to you on the turn when you are the aggressor in the hand, but I don’t think I could fold an over pair on a lead here without any reads on him, but the river is tough. You beat only a bluff and is folding fine I think or you have seen him overplay top pair before.

    • DecMate
      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 1,535
      I was thinking perhaps we could check the flop, but as you said his range does contain a lot of pockets and checking could bring another overcard to his PP, making it a weaker choice.

      I think you played it fine.
      As SDK said I don't think folding to a turn donk here is viable; it's an odd line and may indicate he's a weaker player, it doesn't scream strength to me.
      The river is a clear fold.:f_thumbsup:
    • Zotyibacsi97
      Joined: 20.05.2015 Posts: 217
      really don't see what we beat.
      care his range is mostly pockets but he can have and play link this QT and flushdraws and KJ maybe. It's pretty rare people donk with set when you squeez and cbet flop (no way he is balancing this). His range is all combo QT and KJ and a lot of fd but let's give him 1combo 44 and 1 combo 77 and add 1combo KQ then to. You are top of your range you can't fold there everything expect KK. I pretty sure you have the odds at this river to call to, but if the river is not a spade, 9 (maybe K to) then you have to call for sure.
    • Zotyibacsi97
      Joined: 20.05.2015 Posts: 217
      I just realyze i make a mistake:
      His range is all combo QT
      He is can't have QT there at all
    • nsavov
      Joined: 24.09.2010 Posts: 1,081
      That is an unexploitable fold, good job!

      Our river range is AK, JJ, KK, AA, AsTs, AsQs - 26 combos (if you cbet the JJ on the flop). If you dont, then its 23 combos.
      Either way you gotta defend about 15 combos OTR. Its debatable wether its better to have AA or AK in this spot. AK blocks two pairs, AA beats AK, if the guy goes nuts with it, plus as you mentioned with two aces in our hand and a K on the flop we block AK heavily, so AK is probably a better hand than AA.

      Even if you fold every spade in your range you will still defend 15 combos which is more than enough (12 if you dont cbet the JJ).

      Please correct me if I made a mistake somewhere :)