[NL2-NL10] TT MP3 vs nit

  • 3 replies
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Puh, I think it's ok to fold vs a guy with those stats.


      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Nice hand, well played.
    • Smileyphil
      Smileyphil
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2008 Posts: 488
      Considering EV with the following assumptions:
      - You win with a set.
      - You can stack him with a set (pretty likely if he cbets he will be pot commited anyway)
      - His 3 bet range is KK, AA, AK and he will not fold.
      - Therefore our equity is 40%.

      EV (fold) = -$0.40

      EV (call) = (-$0.70 x 7/8) + ($2.69 x 1/8) = -$0.27

      EV (push) = (-$2.69 x 0.60) + ($2.69 x 0.40) = -$0.53

      All options are negative but calling for set value may actually be the best choice. However we cannot guarantee that we will win with a set or that we can stack him. So realistically all options are probably around the same.

      Could possibly be worth pushing if you think any big stacks on the table are paying enough attention that 4 betting with TT will make them looser against you.