Plugging the collander. Which leaks to plug first? ie Help me please.

    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      Okay, some horrible glaring leaks show here. Please help!

      Stats from $1/$2 SH over ~10k hands

      VPIP: 23.8%
      PFR: 19.8%

      ORLP: 30.7%
      Fold SB to steal: 81.4%
      Fold BB to steal: 48.9%

      AF post flop:
      Average: 2.1
      Flop: 2.4
      Turn: 2.3
      River: 1.4

      AFq post flop:
      Average: 68%
      Flop: 70%
      Turn: 70%
      River: 58%

      C-bet:
      Flop: 98%
      Turn: 78%
      River: 59%

      WTS: 42.5%
      W$SD: 50.1%
      W$WSF: 44.5%

      I have only one comment intially. I started to call down with Ax hands more for the first ~5-6k hands at this limit, but not necessarily in the correct spots... I'm still calling down more hands than at lower limits but trying harder to pick the correct spots/opponents.

      Any other stats required please ask and I'll post them. Thanks folks for any help.
  • 11 replies
    • OlivierLu
      OlivierLu
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2007 Posts: 5,524
      When moving up, you have to increase your WTS (A-high, middle pairs, etc.). You are on the correct way to increase your $ incomes.
      Also, you seems not to defend your blinds enough. You defend around 51%, but that should be between 55-65% (not sure if that really the right range, but I'm sure you fold too much. If you fold more than 50%, then your oppenent can profitabilly steal with any2.

      Well, your won@SD seems a little be too small. There are many reason for that. Imo, there are 2 mains reasons: calling the wrong spots to SD and hard time with variance. There are millions of others reasons, but this stat should increase to 52-55%.
    • opal99
      opal99
      Black
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,270
      I told you already about AFq, so let's talk about others:

      - PFR is a bit higher than should be by the chart, but it's probably due to smaplesize, so not important

      I'd like to see your 3bet stat, if I can ask for ;)

      - ORLP should be higher, but I think this is because of donks you play against on this limit (I have 38 atm and think about raising it if possible)

      - Fold BB as OlivierLu said: his range is correct :) (I have 40%)

      - WTS: hmm, it's OK to raise it when moving up, but I doubt 40+ is OK for 1/2, 42 definetely isn't. It depends on opponents you play against, so if you constantly play vs. maniacs it is fine, but I would say there're more calling stations than maniacs, so it's not neccessary. (I have 40 @ 3/6 and 5/T, what I think is enough... 42 would be too much for 3/6 imo)


      I don't fully understand how can you have such high AFq and "only" 2.1 AF with such high WTS... If there's someone who can explain it to me, you're welcome :)
    • CoreySteel
      CoreySteel
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 3,366
      Man, I'm such a noob... What's AFq? :P
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
      Black
      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      Bet/fold more rivers, can't say a lot more :P
    • opal99
      opal99
      Black
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,270
      Originally posted by CoreySteel
      Man, I'm such a noob... What's AFq? :P
      AFq = (bets + raises) / (bets + raises + calls + folds)
      AF = (bets + raises) / calls

      those 2 post should explain everything:

      http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=11853136&an=0&page=0#Post11853136
      http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=6396230&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      Hi Waiboy,

      ORLP: 30.7% should be around 35-40% I guess but depends on your opponents if you play by the ORC:
      Fold SB to steal: 81.4% should be at 85% if youdon't play too many overaggressive opponents.
      Fold BB to steal: 48.9% should be at 55% (50% at higher limits) so you overdefend your BB which results in a lot -EV spots postflop. As they call to much down anyway you can't push them off better hands so you might lose money here.

      River: 1.4 is a bit too low. You might miss some valuebets (as Yoghi said bet/fold river might be the reason).

      WTS: 42.5% this is way too high for this limit. 38% should be the max for 1/2$ (well I haven't played these limits for years so maybe it's as aggressive as 3/6$ and 5/10$ then 38-40% is fine too). You pay them off to often. :)

      W$SD: 50.1% that is a pretty nice winrate for calling down so much in my opinion. So you might lose your money somewhere else but but I can't see where. :/ Maybe you fold too fast in the wrong spots but then your wts would be lower. Well probably it's just that you win a lot small pots but lose the bigger ones. :)
    • Amirapuato
      Amirapuato
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.07.2007 Posts: 1,105
      Originally posted by opal99
      Originally posted by CoreySteel
      Man, I'm such a noob... What's AFq? :P
      AFq = (bets + raises) / (bets + raises + calls + folds)
      AF = (bets + raises) / calls

      those 2 post should explain everything:

      http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=11853136&an=0&page=0#Post11853136
      http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=6396230&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1

      Now I know why the AFq looks so high when players use the PS Elephant... :P

      It's because the Elephant calculates AFq = (bets + raises) / (bets + raises + calls) (it forgets the folds)


      :diamond: You can make an approximate correction knowing %Fold:

      corrected AFq = AFq*100 / (100 + %Fold)

      :diamond: Or you can make the exact correction, knowing #Bets&Raises, #Calls and #Folds

      When you move your cursor over AF, it displays something like xxx/yyy, where xxx is #Bets&Raises and yyy is #Calls.

      And when you move it over the %Fold, it also displays something like xxx/yyy, where xxx is #Folds.

      When you know all those, you calculate AFq according to:

      AFq = #Bets&Raises / (#Bets&Raises + #Calls + #Folds)
    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      Wow... thanks for the response folks, much appreciated!!!

      Warning... long post. I've tried to get as much in to attempt a response to all comments received and give my tainted view on things. Any further advice is once again more than welcome!

      @opal99: 3-bet stat as requested:

      Flop: 12%
      Turn: 15%
      River: 14%

      ORLP:

      Not sure on this one. I did have some issues a while back where I was missing some of the bottom range of the SHC eg 87s on the BU, T9s from MP3 but I would have thought I'd corrected this long ago enough to not significantly impact this stat. Not sure at all... will have to keep an eye on hands and note where I miss these.

      Fold SB to steal:

      Again, I'm trying to play by approx. charts here - maybe I'm using them incorrectly? I use chart 6a showing 3-betting ranges v ORC and don't make too many adjustments based on vilians stats, unless I'm left of a high PFR villian (25%+) and then I will loosen up a little. I wouldn't have thought this signicant though as 95% (at least) of the time I'm using the 3-bet chart.

      I will call using chart 4 "Call (w/o implied odds)". I tend to try not to call with poor suited hands (eg T2s-T5s, 92s-95s, 82s-84s), but if the odds are around 5:1 (eg 1 limper) then I will complete suited hands from the SB. The same applies to the other hand ranges in this chart.

      I will also call PPs 22-77/88 (depending on position of OR) from the SB with one raiser/one caller.

      Fold BB to steal:

      Hmm.. here again I'm not completely sure why this might be too high. I defend based on chart 7 "BB v ORC". To be honest I think I occassionally miss opportunities to defend with the weakest of these hands because of the wide range this chart offers... and I do adjust to defend a little tighter v the tighter villians.

      So, for those suggesting my Fold BB to steal is high and I should defend more, I can understand why this might be the case. Although I see ciRith has an alternative view on this stat... :D

      ciRith - if I'm over defending I'm unsure how I should adjust my play from this chart.

      Just thinking on this... one possible answer is that I will sometimes cold call after a BU raise and SB call where the SB and/or BU are significantly loose PF and I have a hand in the defend range or the "Call (w/o implied odds)" chart range. Should this be a case of if you can't 3 bet, or the hand is poor post flop multiway (eg weak Ax hands, Kx hands) then this should be a fold?

      Other than this possibility, is there a range of hands I should be culling here from the "BB v ORC" chart? Should I instead try to get my head around the chart 5 "Reaction acc. to opponents PFR" chart and use this as my guide v known villians and only use the "BB v ORC" chart to play v unknowns?

      Possibly posting some of the BB defence hands where I'm worried its marginal or there are departures from the charts (if I do this of course! It won't be often anyway).

      AF:

      I'll take it that my AF on Flop and Turn are in an okay range.

      River AF I can am totally sure is significantly impacted by my poor play in river bet/fold situations, and a contributer to my high WTS stat as well.

      I'm trying to put villians on ranges and trying hard to consider better hands that will fold, worse hands that will call before making a river bet.

      I will make a concerted effort to post river situations where I'm c/c or b/c. I very seldom bet/fold because I prefer (incorrectly, I know) to check call. Particularly where villian hits a hand like bottom pair on dry board and either doesn't bet flop or turn, but bets river (either IP or OOP - both I have difficulty with).

      Situations where I don't want to bet and get 3-bet but I figure my hand is good enough to call down given villians tendency to bet to a check (this is a bluff induce type situation - correct?).

      Spots like TPGK with - say - AT, KT on a T77 board, and either the turn or river is an overcard and I get bet at on river. What villian do we fold to here if we face a river bet or raise? Perhaps hand evaluation posting is a better way of determining these.

      WTS:

      For me the most obvious problem.. only tempered by the fact I'm still 50%+ on W$SD... so any minor improvement here should have an immediate impact on my win rate (here's hoping). :rolleyes:

      Working on bet/fold river (and possibly turn?) situations will no doubt improve this stat. Better evaluating call down situations will too... although I have already tightened up here and have started to fold more.... not that it's helped my last couple of sessions. :baby:

      W$SD:

      Not overly worried about this stat as I guess ultimately it will improve reflecting improvements suggested by the other stats.

      I would say that I have an intuitive impression that I'm getting nailed a lot in big pots by suckouts and not getting value from my monster hands, but that's easy to say because these hands always make a bigger impression! ;)
    • opal99
      opal99
      Black
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,270
      Originally posted by Waiboy
      Fold SB to steal:

      Again, I'm trying to play by approx. charts here - maybe I'm using them incorrectly? I use chart 6a showing 3-betting ranges v ORC and don't make too many adjustments based on vilians stats, unless I'm left of a high PFR villian (25%+) and then I will loosen up a little. I wouldn't have thought this signicant though as 95% (at least) of the time I'm using the 3-bet chart.

      I will call using chart 4 "Call (w/o implied odds)". I tend to try not to call with poor suited hands (eg T2s-T5s, 92s-95s, 82s-84s), but if the odds are around 5:1 (eg 1 limper) then I will complete suited hands from the SB. The same applies to the other hand ranges in this chart.

      I will also call PPs 22-77/88 (depending on position of OR) from the SB with one raiser/one caller.
      Interesting, but why don't you use (5)??? 4th and 5th collumn are exactly 3bet hands from SB ;) Of course, you can coldcall by (4), but don't use (6a) here - it's for play out of blinds more or less... (sure, if you don't have stats it's usefull but risky)

      Originally posted by Waiboy
      Just thinking on this... one possible answer is that I will sometimes cold call after a BU raise and SB call where the SB and/or BU are significantly loose PF and I have a hand in the defend range or the "Call (w/o implied odds)" chart range. Should this be a case of if you can't 3 bet, or the hand is poor post flop multiway (eg weak Ax hands, Kx hands) then this should be a fold?
      You're in BB calling 1 SB.. I thought you know the definition of cold-call ;)

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/glossary/Cold-Call

      To your question: you SHOULD call according to (4) if you have good odds, no matter who is already in.

      Originally posted by Waiboy
      Other than this possibility, is there a range of hands I should be culling here from the "BB v ORC" chart? Should I instead try to get my head around the chart 5 "Reaction acc. to opponents PFR" chart and use this as my guide v known villians and only use the "BB v ORC" chart to play v unknowns?
      exactly; that's the reason (5) is there.. Some lower hands like T9 are not listed there, so you use (7) in that case.


      ------------------------
      About fold BB to steal: I'm not sure if we are talking about the same, so I'd like to see ciRith's explanation.

      I agree with OlivierLu, what means FoldBB to Steal Attempt should be around 40-45%, so you defend 55-60% imho and ciRith said it exactly opposite, so maybe it's just missunderstanding at this point. I saw many good TAGs with this stat around 35-40% @ 5/10, what is influenced mainly by not folding in BB vs. SB (you're IP what gives you an advantage later).
    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      Originally posted by opal99
      Originally posted by Waiboy
      Fold SB to steal:

      Again, I'm trying to play by approx. charts here - maybe I'm using them incorrectly? I use chart 6a showing 3-betting ranges v ORC.. [edit]

      I will call using chart 4 "Call (w/o implied odds)".[edit]
      Interesting, but why don't you use (5)??? 4th and 5th collumn are exactly 3bet hands from SB ;) Of course, you can coldcall by (4), but don't use (6a) here - it's for play out of blinds more or less... (sure, if you don't have stats it's usefull but risky).
      Probably not using (5) due to irrational fear?! Requires me to look too hard under pressure to make decisions requiring more judgement and I figured (6a) gave a TAG range for 3-betting. I had intended to build using these ranges into my play as I got closer to $2/$4.

      I will make this change immediately because there's no real reason not too. :P

      BTW do you mean " (6a)... it's for play out of the blinds" is for playing positions MP3-BU? Ok, easy fix, will try harder here.


      Originally posted by Waiboy
      Just thinking on this... one possible answer is that I will sometimes cold call after a BU raise and SB call where the SB and/or BU are significantly loose PF and I have a hand in the defend range or the "Call (w/o implied odds)" chart range. Should this be a case of if you can't 3 bet, or the hand is poor post flop multiway (eg weak Ax hands, Kx hands) then this should be a fold?
      You're in BB calling 1 SB.. I thought you know the definition of cold-call ;)

      [URL]http://www.pokerstrategy.com/glossary/Cold-Call[/URL]
      Have you not read my blog? :P Actually I thought it was after any bet and raise.. not just 2 bets.. and of course I (for no good reason) didn't consider that our posting blind is considered a bet in this definition.

      To your question: you SHOULD call according to (4) if you have good odds, no matter who is already in.
      Agreed... included more for information... its calling using the BB defence range in these situations that may be incorrect even though we have a loose calling SB.


      Originally posted by Waiboy
      Other than this possibility, is there a range of hands I should be culling here from the "BB v ORC" chart? Should I instead try to get my head around the chart 5 "Reaction acc. to opponents PFR" chart and use this as my guide v known villians and only use the "BB v ORC" chart to play v unknowns?
      exactly; that's the reason (5) is there.. Some lower hands like T9 are not listed there, so you use (7) in that case.
      Done and done.:D

      About fold BB to steal: I'm not sure if we are talking about the same, so I'd like to see ciRith's explanation.

      I agree with OlivierLu, what means FoldBB to Steal Attempt should be around 40-45%, so you defend 55-60% imho and ciRith said it exactly opposite, so maybe it's just missunderstanding at this point. I saw many good TAGs with this stat around 35-40% @ 5/10, what is influenced mainly by not folding in BB vs. SB (you're IP what gives you an advantage later).
      Interesting... just re-read the gold article on stats with this regard and it is in line with ciRith. It suggests a good starting point is a stat of 65%! but that with experience driving this down to 55% is a good aim (or 50% v loose stealers). It further suggests 40% is possible on mid-limits with low rake v aggressive opponents but requires appropriate levels of experience in order to correctly handle the marginal post flop situations.

      Think I'll work on getting it to 55% except v loose/aggressive CO / BU / SB, and work on loosening up at higher limits.
    • opal99
      opal99
      Black
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,270
      Originally posted by Waiboy
      BTW do you mean " (6a)... it's for play out of the blinds" is for playing positions MP3-BU? Ok, easy fix, will try harder here.
      no, not exactly.. It's not specified to only non-blind positions, because if it's OR from BU, you must be in SB or BB to 3bet according to chart. I ment it's better to use it out of blinds because this way you have position advantage over your opponent. Don't forget it's only against TAG, so you can't use it against 50/15 OR from MP... that's why (5) is there.

      Just addition: it's probably not for BB defence at all (6a), because chart (7) is call/3b from BU vs OR TAGs.