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[NL25] When AK is facing big squeeze size

    • melting735
      melting735
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.05.2018 Posts: 78
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $29.89 (119.6 bb)
      BB: $37.61 (150.4 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $28.33 (113.3 bb)
      MP: $12.21 (48.8 bb)
      CO: $50.35 (201.4 bb)
      BTN: $27.55 (110.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with :Ac: :Kd:
      Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, CO folds, BTN calls $0.75, SB raises to $4.25, BB folds, Hero raises to $9, 2 folds, SB raises to $29.89 and is all-in, Hero calls $19.33 and is all-in

      Villain VPIP/PFR/AF/3BET 31/21/2.5/7.3 in 338 hands

      I believe 4 bet means pot committed in this situation. Thus, I have to call his shove.

      Is 4bet the best option here? Do I have any fold equality after he shove? What do you guys think?
  • 6 replies
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,221
      Over this small sample we could say that villain looks lag-ish. It could mean he squeezes frequently also. I think 4bet is fine here. If you call you might just invite calls from players behind us and then we would find ourselves in a big pot with off-suit AK and OOP vs a couple of guys.
      After villain jams I think it is close. Villain needs to jam some other hands than just QQ+,AK for you to make profit here. And when he jams against UTG 4bet I think he might be quite tight in this spot.
    • Tonyx86
      Tonyx86
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2018 Posts: 142
      Fold is too weak, Call brings us in ugly situations OTF, thatswhy i also prefer the 4bet, but i would have raised a bit bigger.
    • melting735
      melting735
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.05.2018 Posts: 78
      Originally posted by la55i
      After villain jams I think it is close. Villain needs to jam some other hands than just QQ+,AK for you to make profit here. And when he jams against UTG 4bet I think he might be quite tight in this spot.
      Are you going to make the call after he shoves? ^^
      I have to call $19.33 to win $37.33. If hes QQ+ and AK, then I am 38.824% vs 61.176%. If I add JJ in his range, it's 39.785% vs 60.215%.
      By math, its probably a fold.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,221
      I think there is actually 38.83$ in the pot if you count MP and BTN calls too. You would need to win 33.24% just to break even (and if you count in rake, you would still be losing some money).
      Against QQ+,AK you do have that 38% equity according to equilab but the split% is a big part of that. In order to break even you need to win that 33%, not just split. So villain has to ship it with a range like JJ+,ATs+,AKo for you to win often enough. Villain can probably squeeze here wide but when he faces a 4bet from UTG I think he shouldn't ship it that lightly.
      So fold seems reasonable.
    • GridironAssassin
      GridironAssassin
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.12.2014 Posts: 82
      Sick spot. His squeeze is super strong. He is in worst possible position (SB) vs UTG open (Strong Already) and two calls. This is rarely worse than QQ+. I think with 3bb invested you can make a fold pre. I think I like a 4b All-In if I am going to continue here. If my intention was to 4b/call I prefer to 4b All In myself, knock out the capped callers and try to maximize my fold equity.
    • melting735
      melting735
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.05.2018 Posts: 78
      Originally posted by la55i
      I think there is actually 38.83$ in the pot if you count MP and BTN calls too. You would need to win 33.24% just to break even (and if you count in rake, you would still be losing some money).
      Against QQ+,AK you do have that 38% equity according to equilab but the split% is a big part of that. In order to break even you need to win that 33%, not just split. So villain has to ship it with a range like JJ+,ATs+,AKo for you to win often enough. Villain can probably squeeze here wide but when he faces a 4bet from UTG I think he shouldn't ship it that lightly.
      So fold seems reasonable.
      la55i, you are right. I recalculated my EV = $38.83*0.1814 (win) - $19.33*0.4050 (lose) + $38.83/2*0.2068 (tie) = -$0.96, if we put him on QQ+, AK. This has not included rake. On the other hand, when he shoved against UTG, especially our stacks were bigger than 100bb, his range can probably be stronger than QQ+, AK.

      BTW, villain had KK after show down.

      Thanks for all you guys' comments. I believed I learned something from this hand. ^^