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[NL20-NL50] NL 25 FR - AK preflop betting

    • Smileyphil
      Smileyphil
      Silver
      Joined: 28.10.2008 Posts: 488
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $18.11
      UTG1:
      $25.92
      Hero:
      $27.39

      0.1/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with A:spade: , K:heart:
      UTG1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 5 folds, SB raises to $5.00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $27.39 (All-In), SB calls $13.11 (All-In), Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $36.72

      Is it ok to push like this with AK?

      Note: My stats aren't very reliable because of the low hand sample so I wouldn't base too much on them.
  • 4 replies
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      In a FR table I only go broke pre-flop with KK+, unless I have a good read on opp.

      This guy is 3betting a UTG raise OOP. This means a lot of strength.

      In this spot I would call his 3bet, as I am IP and have a pretty strong hand.
      If you had more hands on him and his stats were the same as they are with 48 hands, you can actually find a fold I think.
    • Smileyphil
      Smileyphil
      Silver
      Joined: 28.10.2008 Posts: 488
      I am unsure because a fold is very weak but he has shown a lot of strength and my original plan to isolate the UTG1 limper has failed.

      A call means we are essentially hoping for an A or K (only 1/3 of the time) and we have to give up the hand without.

      Pushing probably only really leaves us against KK+, AK. And we don't have much fold equity because he wouldn't 3 bet much else. (maybe JJ, QQ but thats not much fold equity)

      - I wonder what the judges will think.

      I'm not very used to stats. Which part makes you think it would be a fold? (assuming larger sample size)

      He has a large vp$ip but pretty low PFR. So this suggests his 3bets are very strong??
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Yes, his PFR suggests his 3bet is very strong.

      a 4% PFR is something like JJ+, AQ. But that's the average, so it can be tighter in EP, looser in LP and so on. A 3betting range is even tighter than the PFR. A guy 3betting an UTG raise from the SB is even tighter.

      I think there are 3 possible ranges for him.

      1 - He 3bets KK+ and you're pretty much dead.
      2 - He 3bets QQ+, AK and calls a push with all of these. This is still -EV
      3 - He 3bets QQ+, AK and only calls push with KK+. Your push here is profitable, as he folds most of his range. I don't think he'll do this though.

      So I don't like shoving here.
      Calling is possible. The problem is that when you hit TP/TK, he'll fold all the hands that you beat. You'll get a split pot maximum.

      As a general rule, going broke with AKo on a FR table is bad.
    • darkonebg
      darkonebg
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 17.01.2008 Posts: 9,508
      Originally posted by caltabiano
      Yes, his PFR suggests his 3bet is very strong.

      a 4% PFR is something like JJ+, AQ. But that's the average, so it can be tighter in EP, looser in LP and so on. A 3betting range is even tighter than the PFR. A guy 3betting an UTG raise from the SB is even tighter.

      I think there are 3 possible ranges for him.

      1 - He 3bets KK+ and you're pretty much dead.
      2 - He 3bets QQ+, AK and calls a push with all of these. This is still -EV
      3 - He 3bets QQ+, AK and only calls push with KK+. Your push here is profitable, as he folds most of his range. I don't think he'll do this though.

      So I don't like shoving here.
      Calling is possible. The problem is that when you hit TP/TK, he'll fold all the hands that you beat. You'll get a split pot maximum.

      As a general rule, going broke with AKo on a FR table is bad.
      You are making general rules from a nonexistant hand sample.
      Its +ev to push it here for less than 100BB effective.NH!