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$1.10, 3-betting 97s

    • Yuris125
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 406
      PokerStars, $0.98 + $0.12 - Hold'em No Limit - 250/500 (30 ante) - 9 players

      UTG: 10,189 (20 bb)
      UTG+1: 8,532 (17 bb)
      MP: 16,806 (34 bb)
      MP+1: 29,148 (58 bb)
      LP: 9,302 (19 bb)
      CO: 22,151 (44 bb) VPIP 27, PFR 12, fold to 3-bet 67, 99 hands
      BU (Hero): 21,826 (44 bb)
      SB: 10,775 (22 bb)
      BB: 22,644 (45 bb)

      Pre-Flop: (1,020) Hero is BTN with 7 9
      5 players fold, CO raises to 1,000, Hero 3-bets to 3,000, 2 players fold, CO calls 2,000

      Flop: (7,020) 8 Q 8 (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets 2,250, CO calls 2,250

      Turn: (11,520) 9 (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero checks

      River: (11,520) T (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero checks

      Total pot: 11,520

      BU (Hero) mucks 7 9 (two pair, Nines and Eights)
      (Equity - Pre-Flop: 40%, Flop: 9%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

      CO shows Q A (two pair, Queens and Eights)
      (Equity - Pre-Flop: 60%, Flop: 91%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

      CO wins 11,520


      Preflop - would you bother 3-bet-bluffing in this spot in a $1 tournament? Would you do it against this particular player? They have a large gap between VPIP and PFR, so likely not the strongest player in the field, and seem to have raise/folds in their range (although 67% fold to 3-bet over 99 hands likely means they folded 2 times out of 3, not really statistically significant). Not sure

      Post-flop - once they call the c-bet and I turn a pair, I don't think they're folding a Q or an 8, and I now beat low pocket pairs, so trying to get to showdown seems like the best approach. Reasonable? What do you guys think?

  • 2 replies
    • SDK1987
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 38,920
      Interesting spot for a 3bet bluff, but I would like to know what kind of sample the fold to 3bet stat is based on. If he folds for example 2 of the 3 times someone was 3betting on him this stat is useless. Without this info I would also fold against a player that’s playing to passive in my opinion so far.

      The rest of the hand seems standard against someone that folds most likely often on a dry flop like this.

    • ILuvBeachVB
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 410
      If he is only raising 12% I think I would flat this hand and try to hit 2pr or better. Below 40bb, I would fold.

      I prefer 98s or 87s as 3b bluff hand in the right spot. Suited connectors > one gaps.