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[NL5] AQo river full vs push all in

    • ToddBrunson
      ToddBrunson
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2010 Posts: 398
      Villain stats 360 hands, 25/20. But i know him for full ring, he is avarage tag player, so i thinked my fold maybe tight but not bad, almost always he had 4x or 88

      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players


      Hero (SB): $5 (100 bb)
      BB: $12.67 (253.4 bb)
      CO: $5.90 (118 bb)
      BTN: $10.90 (218 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with :Qs: :Ac:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, BB calls $0.10

      Flop: ($0.30) :4d: :8c: :Ad: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.19, BB calls $0.19

      Turn: ($0.68) :4s: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.33, BB calls $0.33

      River: ($1.34) :4c: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.85, BB raises to $12 and is all-in, Hero folds

      Results:
      $3.04 pot ($0.13 rake)
      Final Board: :4d: :8c: :Ad: :4s: :4c:
      Hero mucked :Qs: :Ac: and lost (-$1.52 net)
      BB mucked and won $2.91 ($1.39 net)
  • 6 replies
    • melting735
      melting735
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.05.2018 Posts: 78
      Vs a tag, I would fold as well. It hurts when you fold, but it's very unlikely he would do this without having A beat.
    • Shaluga
      Shaluga
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.05.2018 Posts: 10
      If the river doesn't fill you up I'd go with the fold here but as it pays out you're losing to a pretty much only 88 (1 combo) and how many 4x hands are there in his range given he called pre and on the flop. I'm more inclined to put Ax hands in his range for the split. In fact what hands are you putting him on by the river?
    • ToddBrunson
      ToddBrunson
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2010 Posts: 398
      88 and A4, very possible hand for him. Lot of players slow played this board with three of kind and definetly slow play two pairs. And turn he hit the full house and he played go slow. Maybe 45s, 46s. Blind vs blind, tag players defend the big blinds every suited connectors.
    • GridironAssassin
      GridironAssassin
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.12.2014 Posts: 82
      100% reasonable play on your part and I think I play it the same way.

      However, not sure how much value there is to go after on river. Pairs under AA fold, Ax calls for a chop so the only feasible call we get is for a chop. It might be too thin to bet value and it certainly can’t be categorized as a bluff as no better hands will fold. I am curious to see if the EV is higher playing this as a check/call (against a reasonable bet) vs. bet/fold. I am going to put this hand in the solver and check it out. I certainly think it’s possible that a check can get him to bluff with worse. Either way it is fairly thin.
    • ToddBrunson
      ToddBrunson
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2010 Posts: 398
      River push all in with tag players very rarely bluff this board, i think most of time he had 4x.
    • GridironAssassin
      GridironAssassin
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.12.2014 Posts: 82
      Hello Todd, I put this in PIOsolver and the results are as follows:

      Turn it prefers checking your combo 60% of the time, betting small (like you did) @32% of the time and betting big very rarely. It is for sure a +EV bet. The EV of checking vs. betting is negligible.

      River it prefers checking your combo 83% of the time and betting small the vast majority of the time. Again, your bet is certinaly ok, but checking > betting from an EV standpoint. And according to the solver, the river is a trivial fold when he jams. Against a 3x river raise (just plugged it in for the hell of it), it has us calling all of the AJ+ @ 70% of the time.

      Interesting hand.