AA is -EV for me..

    • iMilk
      iMilk
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.07.2008 Posts: 23
      I'm writing this just to blow some steam out of my mind..

      I started playing NL SSS about a month ago. In this time I've played 3100 hands, and being dealt AA 21 one times. That should be a good thing since it's alot more than what I should have been dealt - according to odds and percentages, I should only have been dealt AA 13 times, I think. So why put this in the "Downswing reports"?
      Well out of the 21 times I've being dealt aces, I've only been all-in twice, of about 13 times, where I was not the favourite, and yet I have a deficit(think that's the word) of -1.5BI. If I would have been "lucky" - well actually not lucky because if I was the lucky one, I would have sucked out those two times - I would have a profit of 4BI - and if "lucky-lucky" (:P ) a profit of 7BI - from my AA hands. That sucks.

      No deeper meaning of this thread just wanted to blow some steam of, so bear with me if you think it's standard!
  • 8 replies
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Comfort yourself that 3k hands isn't much and that it will even out in time :)
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      AA is overrated
    • Zheelvern
      Zheelvern
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.10.2007 Posts: 704
      Originally posted by viewer88
      AA is overrated
      :heart:
    • Dante63s
      Dante63s
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.01.2009 Posts: 5,523
      Originally posted by viewer88
      AA is overrated
      Nha I love them...

      They win way more that any other hand.
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,356
      You are basing your sample on 21 Hands?

      Please. You swill hit the average winrate for a hand in a large sample, say 3K situations, this small sample doesn't tell you anything.
    • iMilk
      iMilk
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.07.2008 Posts: 23
      Originally posted by LemOn36
      You are basing your sample on 21 Hands?

      Please. You swill hit the average winrate for a hand in a large sample, say 3K situations, this small sample doesn't tell you anything.
      I know that it's a small sample, and that of course it'll be like everyone else's after a while. If you'd read my post, you would have seen that all I'm saying is that it's really annoying that the first month that I play NL SSS, I have a deficit on my Aces, and would have had a nice profit if odds where with me.
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      the first time I moved up to nl50 AA and QQ were the most losing hands.}

      in fact I think I moved down before winning a stack with AA :D

      variance is a bitch , get used to it
    • Passero
      Passero
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2007 Posts: 34
      AA are always EV+ when you go all in preflop. If you loose money from it, it's pure of variance. It has nothing to do with EV.

      EV is EXPECTED value. You expect to win but are not sure. Come back when you played 30k hands at least and check the win % of your aces.

      Speaking of stats, aces are 4/5 favorite preflop. THis means that you loose them 1 time out of 5. It can definitly happen that those 1/5 happens 5 times in a row. But in the long term you should have a winrate of +/- 80% with your aces.