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[NL2] (FR) AA - Call river?

    • pguest
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,899
      Mix of reads and stats. UTG is a TAG and BB is loose preflop.

      I can't tell if BB is a calling station because I don't know if he continues with anything postflop.
      The fold to cbet stat has a sample size that seems too small: 11 of 16 (which give us 69%).

      $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players

      UTG+1: 79 BB (VPIP: 36.54, PFR: 0.96, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 105)
      MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.77, PFR: 1.80, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 169)
      MP+1: 127 BB (VPIP: 51.52, PFR: 7.58, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 136)
      CO: 141.5 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 17.14, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 35)
      Hero (BTN): 100 BB
      SB: 53.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
      BB: 62.5 BB (VPIP: 50.76, PFR: 0.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 133)
      UTG: 157 BB (VPIP: 21.18, PFR: 15.07, 3Bet Preflop: 5.93, Hands: 459)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:heart: A:diamond:

      UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BB calls 8 BB, UTG calls 6 BB

      Flop: (27.5 BB, 3 players) 7:heart: 8:spade: J:heart:
      Looking in retrospective, I think I should've 3-betted bigger here.

      BB checks, UTG bets 5 BB, Hero raises to 15 BB, BB calls 15 BB, UTG calls 10 BB

      Turn: (72.5 BB, 3 players) 4:club:
      Not sure what to do with his donk here.

      BB bets 18 BB, fold, Hero calls 18 BB

      River: (108.5 BB, 2 players) K:heart:
      As played the turn, I think I should've called here. The pot looks just too big to fold :f_eek:
      Even though I still believe he had me beaten.

      BB bets 20.5 BB and is all-in, fold

      BB wins 102 BB
  • 3 replies
    • SDK1987
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 38,980
      On the flop you can easy raise to 20bb or something against 2 short stacks, but than you need to stack off on a blank turn card.

      As played I would go for it. He needs to call only 20bb more and I doubt he will ever fold. River you need to call 20bb to win a pot of 140bb in total and that means you need to win this hand 1 out 7 times and I expect you will do that against his shoving range.

    • Tonyx86
      Joined: 28.03.2018 Posts: 142
      Ur fold OTR is a gift for Villain. U still beat enough hands of his range.
    • MrQNo
      Joined: 30.09.2006 Posts: 2,065
      preflop: I usually 3bet 3,5x

      Flop: You have no raise against a regular bet. But utg donks 1/5 pot. Just add his bet to the pot and play. On that wet board, i would bet 3/4 pot for protection, and against 2 opponents i would think about potsize.

      Turn: This time BB donks. After that, he has 20,5 BB left. Push.

      River: You never can fold with pot odds of 6:1. You need to win in one of seven hands to make that call profitable. And he will have more often a K than in one of 7 hands.