This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL2] (FR) AA - Call river?

    • pguest
      pguest
      Silver
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,899
      Mix of reads and stats. UTG is a TAG and BB is loose preflop.

      I can't tell if BB is a calling station because I don't know if he continues with anything postflop.
      The fold to cbet stat has a sample size that seems too small: 11 of 16 (which give us 69%).


      $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players

      UTG+1: 79 BB (VPIP: 36.54, PFR: 0.96, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 105)
      MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.77, PFR: 1.80, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 169)
      MP+1: 127 BB (VPIP: 51.52, PFR: 7.58, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 136)
      CO: 141.5 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 17.14, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 35)
      Hero (BTN): 100 BB
      SB: 53.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
      BB: 62.5 BB (VPIP: 50.76, PFR: 0.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 133)
      UTG: 157 BB (VPIP: 21.18, PFR: 15.07, 3Bet Preflop: 5.93, Hands: 459)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:heart: A:diamond:

      UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BB calls 8 BB, UTG calls 6 BB


      Flop: (27.5 BB, 3 players) 7:heart: 8:spade: J:heart:
      Thoughts:
      Looking in retrospective, I think I should've 3-betted bigger here.

      BB checks, UTG bets 5 BB, Hero raises to 15 BB, BB calls 15 BB, UTG calls 10 BB


      Turn: (72.5 BB, 3 players) 4:club:
      Thoughts:
      Not sure what to do with his donk here.

      BB bets 18 BB, fold, Hero calls 18 BB


      River: (108.5 BB, 2 players) K:heart:
      Thoughts:
      As played the turn, I think I should've called here. The pot looks just too big to fold :f_eek:
      Even though I still believe he had me beaten.

      BB bets 20.5 BB and is all-in, fold


      BB wins 102 BB
  • 3 replies
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 38,980
      On the flop you can easy raise to 20bb or something against 2 short stacks, but than you need to stack off on a blank turn card.

      As played I would go for it. He needs to call only 20bb more and I doubt he will ever fold. River you need to call 20bb to win a pot of 140bb in total and that means you need to win this hand 1 out 7 times and I expect you will do that against his shoving range.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • Tonyx86
      Tonyx86
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2018 Posts: 142
      Ur fold OTR is a gift for Villain. U still beat enough hands of his range.
    • MrQNo
      MrQNo
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.09.2006 Posts: 2,065
      preflop: I usually 3bet 3,5x

      Flop: You have no raise against a regular bet. But utg donks 1/5 pot. Just add his bet to the pot and play. On that wet board, i would bet 3/4 pot for protection, and against 2 opponents i would think about potsize.

      Turn: This time BB donks. After that, he has 20,5 BB left. Push.

      River: You never can fold with pot odds of 6:1. You need to win in one of seven hands to make that call profitable. And he will have more often a K than in one of 7 hands.