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[NL25] AA 3bet pot on a tough river

    • melting735
      Joined: 04.05.2018 Posts: 78
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (SB): $49.20 (196.8 bb)
      BB: $25.57 (102.3 bb)
      MP: $25 (100 bb)
      CO: $31.81 (127.2 bb)
      BTN: $31.65 (126.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with :As: :Ah:
      2 folds, BTN raises to $0.57, Hero raises to $2.75, BB folds, BTN calls $2.18

      Flop: ($5.75) :Jh: :Kd: :3s: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.75, BTN calls $2.75

      Turn: ($11.25) :6c: (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.75, BTN calls $5.75

      River: ($22.75) :Qd: (2 players)
      Hero ???

      Villain VPIP/PFR/AF/3BET/Foldto3BET/Foldtocbet/WTSD/W$SD 22/20/1.9/6.9/63/33/21/56 in 688 hands

      OTR, I think the only hand that would possibly pay me was AK (KTs maybe). How would you guys act otr? 1. Block bet 2. Check fold 3. Check call ?
  • 5 replies
    • Tonyx86
      Joined: 28.03.2018 Posts: 142
      I think his range could look sth. like {AK, KQ, QTs, KJs, JJ, 66, 33}. Because of ur cbets and his position on u villain was able to keep his range wide.

      Actually its really tough OTR. We definetely have some SD value. I would send a small block bet ($7-8) and hoping not to get raised. If we check, i see a even bigger bet of him coming - better hands AND bluffs like QT.

      I'am not sure, but x/f seems too weak to me, because villain hasn't shown much action so far. x/c is overplayed, depending on the pot size.
    • Varune
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 5,452
      This probably is a x/f OTR. I doubt if i would even cbet this board, putting it in our x/c range somewhere is a decent plan.
      As played there isn't alot we can valuebet against, we have better hands in our range that can vbet here.

      You're basicly vbetting against AK, But 1) he'll 4bet those alot pre, 2) we block that hand very hard.
      Thinking he'll call you with KT is VERY optimistic, since we still have AK/KQ/KJ/JJ/KK in our range.

      That being said, he could easily slowplay 2p/sets otf, or made 2p on the river. I also see little to no bluffs in his range because of this. Hence the x/f.
    • melting735
      Joined: 04.05.2018 Posts: 78
      When I was playing this hand, I felt the same way as Tonyx86. Thus I made a block bet and got called by KJs.

      After reviewing a couple of times for this hand, I think Varune is right. Due to the block effect, there were not many AK here, KT was even less likely in his calling range. Thus by checking, I would not miss a lot of value. X/F or calling a small bet from him is probably a better plan.

      Thanks, guys!
    • pokerboy198229
      Joined: 20.08.2011 Posts: 1,646
      Bet fold is most of the time a good strategy but i think its not a case here. He is gonna fold all his less hands or he might turn his hand in to a bluff recognising bet fold strategy. Both scenarios arent valuesch for us. Check decide is better.
    • MatoStar
      Joined: 22.07.2017 Posts: 210
      Check/fold is the best option here as varune said.
      Actually I would cbet the flop with just 1/3 of the pot, because the board is dry. He has a lot of pocket pairs, not that many draws and he will also in troubles with defending on that small sizing.

      Then OTT I would bet probably up to 1/2 (no reason to bet bigger imo) and he should call 77-TT, all Jx hands,Kx hands,QTs.

      Afterwards I think you have a thin value bet OTR, because you keep his range wide, because of the sizings, so betting 1/3-1/2 of the pot make sense.

      So in summary I think betting 3 streets with small sizings can be also fine and actually he can't raise and exploit us, because we haven't many bluffs in our range, only QTs and probably T9s,Q9s.