[NL2-NL10] NL AQs FD vs Donk

    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      BB:
      $17,95
      CO:
      $9,31
      Hero:
      $10,86

      0,05/0,1 No-Limit Hold'em (4 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A:club: , Q:club:
      CO raises to $0,30, Hero raises to $1,00, SB folds, BB calls $0,90, CO calls $0,70.

      Flop: ($3,05) 9:club: , 4:diamond: , 2:club: (3 players)
      BB bets $3,05, CO folds, Hero ???

      So what hand does he most likely have, what should i do?
  • 7 replies
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      An overpair that doesn't want to let you hit the flush with the correct odds ;) Are you sure he is a donk? :P
      Possibly he has a set of course but a set would most likely play check/raise here I think.

      I want to shove this flop actually, since there's a lot of money in the pot already- He can fold TT-QQ and you have flush outs + maybe ace outs. However that might be too fancy and I think veriz doesn't like it :P
    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      i meant donk bet :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Preflop: OK.
      Flop: Looks like he has an overpair here, TT+. He could also have a SET here but I don't think he would bet so big on flop. I like to fold to such bets, no point to gamble with your money. I have lost so much money by drawing flush that I even can count drawing flush as a leak for myself. Also playing with outs here you can't be always sure that you can count all outs.
    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Well im a favourite to everything here except a set or QQ+. I dont see that he could have QQ+ after the preflop play. that leaves me with the question, do he have the set?, as u said, its not likely that he would pot bet with a set. Imo a call here is the worst play - i dont get sufficient pot odds to call and only have implied odds vs a set which is unlikely that he has. If i fold ill loose 1 dollar for every hand in this spot, 100 hands makes -$100. If ill raise and he calls every time without the set or QQ+ ill will over 100 hands win $2 which is better. The question is then whats my fold equity here and how often do he have a set and play it this way.

      As stated above i ruled out both set and QQ+, which leaves me with loosing $100 or winning $2 over 100 hands.

      Have i made any errors in my analyze???
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Shove! you have the equity and still fold equity, although his donk looks strong. The pot is already pretty big. Ship it!


      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Originally posted by TribunCaesar
      Shove! you have the equity and still fold equity, although his donk looks strong. The pot is already pretty big. Ship it!


      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar
      Yay! :D
    • Menel
      Menel
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 70
      Exactly what i did :D he showed 66, turn Q, river flush