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PT3 - Stats of "winning" players (low stakes)

    • pguest
      pguest
      Silver
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,899
      I'm aware that stats don't tell the full story and that winning players may have not so great stats and vice-versa, but I'm interested on your thoughts about the values below.
      They are the ranges attributed by "Leak Finder" to winning players.
      Do those values look reasonable for both fullring and shorthanded?

      Preflop
      VPIP
      FR 11.2% - 22.8%
      SH 16.5% - 30.1%

      PFR
      FR 7.6% - 14.3%
      SH 12.7% - 20%

      PFR/VPIP
      FR 49.2% - 86.9%
      SH 55.5% - 91.5%

      3Bet
      FR 2.2% - 6.0%
      SH 4.2% - 8.9%

      Flop
      CBet Flop
      FR 55.49% - 81.9%
      SH 59.79% - 83.0%

      Flop AF
      FR 1.7% - 5.2%
      SH 1.7% - 7.4%

      Flop AFq
      FR 38.8% - 56.5%
      SH 44.5% - 62.49%

      Fold to F CBet
      FR 37.0% - 66.7%
      SH 37.9% - 62.5%

      Fold to F Bet
      FR 50.0% - 72.0%
      SH 51.7% - 65.7%
  • 3 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 11,243
      Hi pguest,
      Sample size? Limits? Cash or Tournament?
      I've recently played several tournaments on a site that allows no 3rd party software at all -- they don't even save a local hand history, and if you do request the HH of a hand, it is totally pictorial.

      What I noticed from the players that I recognized, is that the best ones will play tight when required, and loosen up when required. These are home games run by a streamer, so I see the same people in the money over and over -- and this includes the streamer. Although she seems lucky, she is rather analytical, and makes some remarkable analyses of other players hands.

      I've cashed a few of these, but nearly as often as the best players who almost always call my bluffs and fold to my good hands even when I think I'm playing them the same.


      VPIP
      FR 11.2% - 22.8%
      SH 16.5% - 30.1%
      That's a wide range!
      The other night I played some NL 10 6-max on a site where nearly everyone limped into each pot to see a flop, and saw a lot of showdowns. If you try to iso-raise, they nearly all call. I played about 600 hands of 6-max at about 9%
      Other times on the same site, with tight players to my left, I've been able to play close to the 30%, and stealing well over 60%.

      My point is that the stats long term can't tell the difference between a player who plays 16% all the time, and a player who ranges between 9% and 30%

      Man, I sure took a long time to say, "Stats don't tell the whole story -- you must change your play to match the situation"

      Peace,
      VS
    • pguest
      pguest
      Silver
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,899
      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      Hi pguest,
      Hi, VorpalF2F. Thanks for the complete answer!

      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      Sample size? Limits? Cash or Tournament?
      Sorry about that. It is cash NL.
      PT3 only says "low stakes". So, I'm assuming that would be NL25 or anything lower?

      I'm not sure from where the lower and upper boundaries of those reference stats are coming from.
      I don't know if the PT3's company has researches on that matter or if they have some kind of population stats. I have no idea.

      I only know that LeakFinder uses them to categorize you, the analyzed player, as on or off track, based on those boundaries.


      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      What I noticed from the players that I recognized, is that the best ones will play tight when required, and loosen up when required.
      Yeah. I try to keep that in mind, all the time.
      But at the micros (NL2, NL5), I still unsure how much of adaptation and balancing are really required.
      Beside that, I'm still learning how to play NL. It is very different from FL FR cash :-)


      Originally posted by VorpalF2F

      VPIP
      FR 11.2% - 22.8%
      SH 16.5% - 30.1%
      That's a wide range!
      Yeah. I suppose PT3 is trying to tell me that there are FR winning players playing 11/7 and there are FR winning players playing 23/14 and
      anything tighter than 11/7 or looser than 23/14 won't be profitable in the long run.


      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      The other night I played some NL 10 6-max on a site where nearly everyone limped into each pot to see a flop, and saw a lot of showdowns. If you try to iso-raise, they nearly all call. I played about 600 hands of 6-max at about 9%
      Other times on the same site, with tight players to my left, I've been able to play close to the 30%, and stealing well over 60%.

      My point is that the stats long term can't tell the difference between a player who plays 16% all the time, and a player who ranges between 9% and 30%
      Agreed. I've been trying to do that: taking into account the general "table stats" along with the individual stats of the players already involved in the hand + the players to act behind me, but it is not always that easy.
      Sometimes we don't stats/reads on some players and we'd need to assume some average stats for players at that site + limit...


      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      Man, I sure took a long time to say, "Stats don't tell the whole story -- you must change your play to match the situation"
      Peace,
      :f_thumbsup:
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,341
      I don't know about fr but for 6max the recommended values seem to be quite okay. One thing that caught my eye is fold to flop cbet. I would say anything over 50% is already way too high and it should be 40% or even under. Also if your overall 3bet% is just a bit over 4% in 6max I would say you might be 3betting too little.

      I have no idea how leakfinder got these stats and if they have updated those during the last 10 years or not. The differences in the min and max value are so big that I think it is quite obvious that winning players hit somewhere in that range :f_biggrin:

      But as said above, stats don't mean so much. You should fix your play and then good stats will be a byproduct of playing well. You should not start changing your play just to get better stats.