# statistics question

• Bronze
Joined: 03.06.2018
If I have a winning rate of 20bb/100 hands on average over 5000 hands, what is the probability that my winning rate will be larger than 10bb/100 hands in the next 95000 hands?
• 4 replies
• Moderator
Moderator
Joined: 12.11.2008
I guess this isn’t a blog, but a NLHE cash game question.
That’s why I have moved it to our NLHE board.

I don’t know what kind of limit you are playing, but 20bb/100 seems high to me and I doubt you will get it higher than this on a sample of 100k hands in total. I’m more a SNG and MTT player and hopefully you get also feedback of a cash game player.

Cheers,
SDK1987
• Bronze
Joined: 26.11.2007
It's definitely possible, but 5k hands is such a low sample size to draw any conclusions from. You should probably focus more on improving your game than thinking about numbers like this in my opinion though.
• Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined: 02.09.2010
Originally posted by IlMarsigliese
If I have a winning rate of 20bb/100 hands on average over 5000 hands, what is the probability that my winning rate will be larger than 10bb/100 hands in the next 95000 hands?
Hi IlMarsigliese,
In "The Mathematics of Poker" there is a section on "Risk of Ruin" that covers calculations like this.

Unfortunately, it was a bit beyond my understanding.
Fortunately -- as you might expect -- there is a nifty online RoR calculator you can use.

Put in whatever numbers suit your fancy and see when (or if) your money runs out.
http://www.pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Update: Using the numbers you gave, the chances look pretty good

Best of luck,
VS
• Moderator
Moderator
Joined: 27.01.2013
How much experience you have? Have you been playing for a long time? How many hands you have played? How well do you know the strategies and theories?

I think answering those questions lets us estimate your chances a lot better. It is easy to have 20bb/100 in 5k hand sample, so it really doesn't tell us anything. But to beat a limit with 10bb/100 on the long run, even at NL2, means that you are quiet decent player and know what you are doing.
So, if you for example just started playing poker and have really no clue what to do, you just started studying the game and have only those 5k hands under your belt, I would say the chances of getting 10bb/100 are not so great. If you already know some basic strategies to beat that limit and your mental game is strong, your chances to achieve that winrate are much better.