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[NL25] MIDDLE Pair plus oesd!

    • fonfry
      fonfry
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2010 Posts: 312
      The villain open in CO 25% and i call with 66.
      I have a middle pair in dry board and i call.He does cbet 53% in flop
      The turn he checks what to do?
      If i bet and he raise i have to fold.
      If i bet and he calls the river is always check minus 7 or 2 or 6 and how much is the size ??
      If i check and he bet the river i will have a dificult decisión
      What to do??

      PokerStars - €0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 30.99, PFR: 29.11, 3Bet Preflop: 16.22, Hands: 220)
      BB: 247.24 BB (VPIP: 21.09, PFR: 17.52, 3Bet Preflop: 8.84, Hands: 6,194)
      UTG: 112.56 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 17.75, 3Bet Preflop: 8.88, Hands: 2,672)
      CO: 140.64 BB (VPIP: 26.83, PFR: 21.98, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 2,217)
      Hero (BTN): 109.32 BB

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 6:club: 6:spade:

      fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

      Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) J:heart: 4:diamond: 5:club:
      CO bets 3.56 BB, Hero calls 3.56 BB

      Turn: (14.52 BB, 2 players) 3:heart:
      CO checks, [color=red]Hero ???
  • 9 replies
    • MatoStar
      MatoStar
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.07.2017 Posts: 210
      Depends on villain stat fold to T bet, but usually I would bet, because of the leak that people cbet on the flop and if they don't hit or don't have enough FE which on turn like this they haven't he will often give-up. So this is one of the reasons and also his range is sth like weak top pairs JT,J9,J8 (sometimes QJ) and 2rd PPs. I think we can bet T with intention to bet river on every 2,6,7 as you mentioned, but also on K,A and sometimes on Q. Because he shouldn't have that many AJ,KJ hands and also QJ- he should cbet OTT for value with these hands. So in the summary you have many outs on which you can barrel also OTR.
      And about his check/raise: I don't think that he is going to cbet flop and check/raise T on that runout, because I don't see any hand from which he would do it.
    • DannyHorsley
      DannyHorsley
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2014 Posts: 191
      It’s a flop that I think villain is cbetting often and @Matostar is right that a big leak for many people is giving up OTT after cbetting OTF.

      I therefore think that we have a strong enough hand to bet. If he calls then we can reevaluate the turn. We have position so can likely just check behind or call a small bet on most cards. We can raise for value with any 2 or 7. Though I don’t think we can raise for value with a 6 as it makes 4 to a straight.
    • Tonyx86
      Tonyx86
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2018 Posts: 142
      I mainly agree with Mato, except those vbets on every Q,K,A. I see only value in river cards that improve our hand (2,6,7).

      COs range, depending on his play might consist of many broadways and some unimproved weaker pockets (77-TT). So i would prefer to bet OTT and since we're not improving to check back the river. I dont think he ever can muck 77-TT or weak Jx and more often is willing to see a showdown here.
    • DecMate
      DecMate
      Gold
      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 1,535
      Bet 1/3-1/2 for protection.
      Pretty common spot.
    • MatoStar
      MatoStar
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.07.2017 Posts: 210
      I don't mean value bet on Q,K,A but bluff bet, because he will fold a lot of better hands like TT-77 and also weak Jx hands
    • DannyHorsley
      DannyHorsley
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2014 Posts: 191
      I disagree that we can vbet with a 6 OTR. With a four-to-a-straight on the board, what is villain calling with that we beat? I think he would have to be quite fishy to call with mid pocket pairs and let’s not forget that we only have one clean 6 as one of them would open up the flush.
    • Tonyx86
      Tonyx86
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2018 Posts: 142
      Originally posted by DannyHorsley
      I disagree that we can vbet with a 6 OTR.
      22 is unlikely (not cbetted by villain). We're loosing only against 77, but i dont think he is checking that towards us. If he's betting the river or check raising the turn we're done of course.
    • DannyHorsley
      DannyHorsley
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2014 Posts: 191
      Originally posted by Tonyx86
      Originally posted by DannyHorsley
      I disagree that we can vbet with a 6 OTR.
      22 is unlikely (not cbetted by villain). We're loosing only against 77, but i dont think he is checking that towards us. If he's betting the river or check raising the turn we're done of course.
      He could also be playing A7 or A2 like this. Also 87s maybe even 32s but I think he would bet the turn with 32s
    • MatoStar
      MatoStar
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.07.2017 Posts: 210
      Definitely if we would bet the Turn and the 6 come OTR we should always go for a value bet/fold. We have a value from Jx hands and maybe PPs.