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[NL5] Straight on flushy mc flushville river

    • clovenhoofsdoom
      clovenhoofsdoom
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.03.2016 Posts: 195
      Hey Guys,

      in BB I defended J9o vs SB - probably not a must, but as well not a must not.

      Villain is a 23/15 over 102 hands and does cbet 60/50/100 F/T/R - but already on Flop cbet I do have only 5 cases.... in SB he has a RFI of 33%

      OTF: OESD- I do not fold here, although I do not get correct odds and the flushdraw worsen my implieds. But would anybody fold here vs a standard sized 50% cbet?

      OTT: Villain continues betting, while the flush outs hit. This is why I do not raise, although I felt I should.

      OTR: Villain triple barrels large and the 1 card flush is here. I have the 4th nutsflush - can we call here? I did, but I instantly said to myself I am a fool, lol. It didn't help, I already called. I guess I played it ok, only on River, this shoudlve been a fold, should it?

      PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (4 handed) - Converted at http://www.handhistoryconverter.com

      SB ($5)
      Hero (BB) ($7.33)
      UTG ($5.53)
      Button ($5)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 9
      2 folds, SB raises to $0.12, Hero calls $0.07

      Flop: ($0.24) 8, 4, 10 (2 players)
      SB bets $0.14, Hero calls $0.14

      Turn: ($0.52) 7 (2 players)
      SB bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

      River: ($1.12) J (2 players)
      SB bets $0.86, Hero calls $0.86

      Total pot: $2.84 | Rake: $0.12

      Results:

      SB had 9, A (flush, Ace high).
      Hero didn't show J, 9 (nothing).
      Outcome: SB won $2.72
  • 9 replies
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,495
      Your call pre-flop with J9o is definitely fine, especially against just 2.5x open. If the open had been 3x I would agree that J9o might not be a must, but now it starts to turn into one.
      OTF you have OESD. I would not fold there. Yea the possible flush draw gives you reverse implied odds, but you have the 9d which actually blocks some of possible flush draws and if he has one, he has 1 less out. So I would definitely call.
      OTT you hit the nut straight. I still would not fold. But I wouldn't raise either. Then I think you would only get calls from weaker hands.
      OTR I think folding would be fine. Villain tripple barreled and on this board I think he wouldn't bet the river with many weak hands. If we think he has a flush, how strong it might be? He probably doesn't bet the river with the weakest flushes. Then all the middle and semi good ones are blocked.
    • clovenhoofsdoom
      clovenhoofsdoom
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.03.2016 Posts: 195
      Yes thanks for mentioning blocker effects! This is probably the strongest argument here for a fold, in combination with the betsize he choose. Thanks for commenting OTF+OTT as well, la55i!
    • Sunrise1912
      Sunrise1912
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.11.2009 Posts: 418
      In these spots i usually sometimes raise the flop as it generates a lot of fold equity, we do have good equity in the hand as well and we balance our range this way.

      As played - definitely raise the turn. There are plenty of weaker hands to call you - any sets/two pair/Ace of diamonds would call your turn raise.

      What i am noticing is that the majority of people who post here think that only made flushes would call you an eventual turn raise. This is just wrong. If that was true i would turn raise any two on a flushy boards and print money. In reality they call way too often with top pairs + redraw, two pairs, random pair +redraw, overpairs etc. So we are missing a lot of value by not raising this turn. Yes, sometimes they will have the flush but in the long run raising this is the highest EV here.

      When they re-jam the turn though is where you can find the fold.

      As played easy fold river. Flushes and even full houses are there.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,495
      I might disagree about the turn raise a bit. People don't raise turns as a bluff that often nor do they call turn raises very lightly (in my opinion). Especially when you consider this board texture. It is straighty and flushy. Calling a turn raise with 2 pair might be a stretch. Also if villain is aware of the pot odds he probably should give up AA with Ad just because he wouldn't get direct odds to call and if his flush completes OTR does he really think he has that great implieds? Well, maybe he does have those implieds and maybe it is difficult to fold strong looking hands, but I wouldn't be overly confident about that.

      I also checked this with Snowie and it thinks we should mix calls and raises if our raise sizing is 2x the original open. If we plan to raise bigger, then Snowie thinks calling has a higher EV.

      I don't have any data on how strong hands villain is capable of folding vs a turn raise on this kind of board texture so my opinion is subjective.
    • clovenhoofsdoom
      clovenhoofsdoom
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.03.2016 Posts: 195
      That's interesting, because while in play I really felt I should raise here, I cannot explain it logically :p but what la55i says is what has prevented me from doing so. It usually depends on the Villain, I guess, if he calls or folds hands like 2 pair, sets and so on.
    • Sunrise1912
      Sunrise1912
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.11.2009 Posts: 418
      What La55i says makes perfect sense... at Nl50 and above where people can lay down hands like pair + redraw, two pairs and the EV between raise and call is similar.

      However, at Nl5 there is no need of GTO at all and the best play is to raise the turn 100% and there isnt a single Poker coach/guru to convince me otherwise when it comes to NL5. People there cant really fold top pairs and the number of calls from weaker hands that you would get is ridiculous. Not to mention that you have 0 fold equity vs a two pair hand that you crush.
    • sdf256
      sdf256
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2016 Posts: 199
      I agree with Sunrise. It is a very drawy board and it is nl5 :D . Majority of players is just not disciplined enough and is not willing to fold their strong looking hands: sets, 2pairs or a pair w/ FD, FD+SD. People deviate from what they should do. They tend to fall in love with their strong hands and are not willing to let them go :D . So I think raising OTT is a fine option. We get value from vilains weaker hands and we can just check behind OTR. And if he re-raises us OTT, we have an easy fold. But well yes.. he can call with a flush too, obviously.

      I dont have any data to prove that people would call those hands I mentioned, its just what I believe that playerpool especially at nl5 does.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,495
      You guys might very well be right. I'm not going to debate about that much because it was just my subjective guess and I have no data to back that up. And you are absolutely right that we shouldn't be thinking about GTO here.
      I'm just a little bit doubtful if they will call that loose on this kind of a board texture but they still might. Being too in love with strong looking hands and not being able to fold sounds definitely right.
    • clovenhoofsdoom
      clovenhoofsdoom
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.03.2016 Posts: 195
      Great discussion going on here! Thanks to all participants :f_love: