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[NL2] When should I fold my set?

    • Bernasconi
      Joined: 04.08.2006 Posts: 486
      Hi guys. I would like to know if there was a better way to play this hand? Of course, I lost in the end but the question remains. Should I have folded and if so, when?

      Villain is known with 92 hands recorded as follows: VPIP 16, PR 13, 3B 18, C Bet 80. As far as I know these are regular stats.

      Villain raises preflop so I set him to a good starting hand like AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ and maybe a few more like KQs, AJs and JJ.

      I hit my set but the board is all diamonds. I call his continuation bet. Because the J diamond is on the board, I give him still all hands from above expect AJ diamonds.

      Bad card for me. Playing check/call. I don't know if I should fold my set here? I mean whichs hands would bet ond this board if he has not a diamond? Maybe he just wants to play his QQ,KK,AA but would he bet without a flush? I don't know. I call because if the board pairs I have a full-house which would outplay even the nut flush. I give myself 11 outs for the full-house.

      River does not improve my hand. Should I fold here?

      888 Poker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      SB: 64 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
      BB: 114 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
      UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 32.43, PFR: 2.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
      UTG+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 14)
      MP: 320 BB (VPIP: 59.38, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 33)
      Hero (CO): 99.5 BB
      BTN: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 16.30, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 92)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, UTG posts penalty blind 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 7:heart: 7:club:

      UTG checks, fold, MP calls 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 7 BB, fold, BB calls 6 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

      Flop: (23.5 BB, 3 players) 8:diamond: 7:diamond: J:diamond:
      BB bets 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero calls 9 BB

      Turn: (44.5 BB, 2 players) 2:diamond:
      Hero bets 6 BB, BTN raises to 12 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

      River: (68.5 BB, 2 players) 5:heart:
      Hero checks, BTN bets 31 BB, Hero calls 31 BB

      BTN shows A:diamond: A:heart: (Flush, Ace High)
      (Pre 80%, Flop 35%, Turn 77%)
      Hero mucks 7:heart: 7:club: (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
      (Pre 20%, Flop 65%, Turn 23%)
      BTN wins 122.5 BB
  • 4 replies
    • clovenhoofsdoom
      Joined: 04.03.2016 Posts: 195
      Preflop: isoraise 77 from MP position to 4x+1bb / every limper. Do not limp. Your holding is strong enough to open raise. BTN would have 3bet you preflop and you would have felt, which could have saved you lots of money ;)

      Why do you bet the turn? You will never get called by anything worse than a flush here. Do not bet a set on a 1 card-to-the-flush Turn***. Play with odds and outs, you have 10 outs for a fullhouse or quad, this equals round about 20% equity. That means, if you have to call a bet larger than 30% potsize you need to know if he would call a bet on the river if the board pairs. I think you should never call a larger (~60-80%) bet here on the turn.

      River is defo a fold. You did not improve. Just let go. He raised you when the 1-to-the-flush turn came, which he won't do with anything worse than a flush.

      BTW: 18% 3bet is nowhere near a regular basis. It's skyrocketing loose, if it's the overall 3bet stat. OK - you just have 100 hands, so this doesn't mean a lot, he still can be a 5% 3bettor and just were on a hot run.

      *** as played it worked well as a block bet. Overall you had the correct odds, as played: just fold the river. And preflop open raise 77 from every position. Rest is fine.
    • Bernasconi
      Joined: 04.08.2006 Posts: 486
      Thank you very much for your detailed response.

      I understand your thoughts about the preflop game. I played it according to the Starting Hand Chart from PokerStrategy which says call from middle position for low pairs (99-22). Also you talk about open raising. In this hand there was a limper in front of me. Do you still think that I should have raised to like 5BB? How to react if the BTN 3 bets preflop?

      I should have played check-call on the turn if the odds are good and otherwise fold right there. Altough it is hard to fold a set. And if I don't make the full-house I should fold on the river.

      Thank you very much.
    • Sunrise1912
      Joined: 24.11.2009 Posts: 418
      Why do you only call 1 BB on the flop ? I dont get it. Just raise the flop. You need value and protection. Even after the original raiser raised - go on top of him. He raises to 10BB in a pot of 23 BB - this is a typical nl 2 move which says "i am strong and want to make it look like a cbet but dont want to make it big as i dont feel confident".

      I am all in on the flop all day and expect to be good almost always.

      River is a clear fold. DO not call such bets on boards with 4 from the same colour
    • clovenhoofsdoom
      Joined: 04.03.2016 Posts: 195
      The Problem with raising the Flop is, that you very often get called only by better hands, i.e. made flushs. So you win a small pot if everyone folds and you loose a big one if you get called.

      " Also you talk about open raising. In this hand there was a limper in front of me. Do you still think that I should have raised to like 5BB? How to react if the BTN 3 bets preflop?"

      Yes I would Isoraise 77 vs a limper. I do it all time and always cbet the flop 30-50% if ONLY the limper calls. This is a very very +EV move. I cannot prove it with data because I'm at work now.

      If BTN 3bet, fold 77 - as long if BTN doesn'T 3bet too frequently, then you can consider 4betting this hand.