[NL2-NL10] NL25 AQ gutshot on flop

    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $26,50
      MP2:
      $15,55
      Hero:
      $5,60

      0,1/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:diamond: , Q:heart:
      2 folds, MP2 calls $0,25, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $1,25, BU folds, SB calls $1,15, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($3,00) J:club: , K:club: , 3:heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1,75, SB raises to $3,50, Hero folds, SB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $6,50

      Would you consider calling this? (check villain's stats)
  • 8 replies
    • wuusaa
      wuusaa
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      A call is no possibility.
      it is a fold or a push.

      here, it is a fold in my opinion.
      Sb can hold AK, AJ, KJ. this flop hits his range very hard.
      so it's likely, you just have 4 Outs.
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      You have only 38 hands, but ok his vpip is high. Let's say he could have Kx Jx, take a look at your equity after the flop:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 30,005% 30,005% 0,000% 69,995% AdQh
      Player 2: 69,995% 69,995% 0,000% 30,005% KTs-K2s, J2s+, KTo-K2o, J2o+

      I think fold is the best move here.
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      But consider the pot odds there.. I get 3,5 to 1 to go all in after his re-raise, which would mean I need only 22% equity?
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      Originally posted by dandycal
      But consider the pot odds there.. I get 3,5 to 1 to go all in after his re-raise, which would mean I need only 22% equity?
      Considering your pot odds, your call was EV+ imo
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      It would have been EV+, but I actually folded... I'm beginning to regret it now, haha.

      EDIT: On a second thought, Kx Jx is too loose a range to be realistic, so I think I wouldn't get such equity at all.
    • mishuq
      mishuq
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.07.2008 Posts: 436
      as someone wrote above, flop kind of hit his range pretty hard. any pair will do for him and you'll never get any fold equity either if you push. but calling still is the worse decision.
      although I agree you can push here because of his stats, I would still fold cause he might be ahead with a pair or smth and if you discount your outs you won't get more than 6-7 max. so 7:1 against you.
      I think it is best to fold unless you have more precise stats on him
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      @ Mishug: Makes sense. I think the range I was considering with Aimboy was not very realistic. Jx is too loose for him to be calling pre-flop.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I play cbet/fold , just wait for a better spot. I only can guarantee 4 outs for you - the rest is speculative and pretty much goes from strategy to gambling imo.


      - Gerv