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Can Variance Explain This?

    • SimbaTheLion
      Joined: 18.02.2009 Posts: 16
      I've played around 2,500 hands of SSS NL10, and I'm up by 50 cents. I've analysed my hands and I'm playing to the exact word of the guides, so I was wondering if variance could be a possible explanation for why I'm only 50 cents up? Is variance really large enough to cause this over 2,500 hands? I'm losing faith in SSS :( ...
  • 7 replies
    • NightFrostaSS
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      2500 hand is really small samplesize after that much hands you can be break even, up, or down and it will mean nothing.
      If you are new to the game, don't just analyze your hands on your own, share it on SSS sample hands section.
    • alejandrosh
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      what else can it be? I don't think nl10 is so tought that basic sss doesn't make a decent winrate.

      btw 2500 is absolutly no sample size.
    • kukkiwonBG
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      You can be even 6-7$ looser in 2.5k hands, even if you are a very solid winner.
      This is nothing. Keep learning and keep playing...

      Best regards,

      P.S. I'm 41 buy-ins below All-in EV in the last 32k hands playing SSS.
      It is swingy, but you need to keep grinding...
    • wuusaa
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      every pokergame is swingy, not just sss.
      just keep playing and analysing your hands.
    • TribunCaesar
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      2.5k hands? That's like picking 3 grains out of a bag of rice. Those 3 might be bad, but the other 100k grains might be ok. ;)

      Best regards,
    • Sholomo
      Joined: 18.04.2007 Posts: 32
      2,5 k hands break even and seem like already losing faith in poker. Thats really something you have to change and prepare for much worse.
    • Jaissica
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Take a look at Elephant and order hands by BB won. Analyse the top 10-20 hands as to if you got your money in in front or behind.

      Order by BB lost. Analyse the same worst number of hands as to if you got your money in in front and got sucked out or got your money in behind in a bad play. (Not every time you get your money in behind is bad play of course... everyone runs into set over set sometimes).

      If your wins are not suckouts and alot of your losses have been then you are experiencing variance. If your wins by suckout is about equal to your losses by suckout then you are getting a pretty even run and probably have some leaks you need to find. If your wins by suckout is alot more common than your losses by suckout then you should probably play with play money for a week and re-read all the content in the strategy section that you have access to, because you are lucky to be even...

      I know its a very crude way to analyse over 2500 hands in half an hour but it worked for me on an 10,000 hand sample. My starting capital plus $10 rakeback was nearly gone (under $20 left from $60 after an early peak of nearly $100) and I was rapidly losing faith in my play.

      I analysed my best and worst hands by financial loss and gain (about 40 from each) and looked at the break down. After doing that there was a very easy to see clear trend of getting my money in in front but getting sucked out more often than is fair. My confidence was restored and a week later my BR is back up to nearly $100 (caught a massive heater).

      Small numbers to most here but to me it was massive and mostly because my confidence was renewed by some simple self analysis :) Hopefully it might help you too.

      Edit - and if there are any hands you are in doubt about as to if you got your money in in front or behind, post them in the sample hands forum. The judges there are fantastic and will set you straight in a hurry :)