[NL2-NL10] Nl10 JJ vs. shortie

    • williamtywong
      williamtywong
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2009 Posts: 123
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $1.85
      UTG2:
      $3.95
      Hero:
      $15.35

      0.05/0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J:club: , J:diamond:
      UTG2 calls $0.10, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 3 folds, SB raises to $1.85 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero calls $1.35.

      Flop: ($3.90) 7:spade: , Q:diamond: , 2:diamond:
      Turn: ($3.90) K:spade:
      River: ($3.90) 7:heart: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $3.90


      Call vs. shortie? Or are the tight stats (only 20+ hands though) reason to fold?
  • 8 replies
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,607
      If this is a SSS player, your way behind.
      Against an unknown I also choose to fold.
    • delete461
      delete461
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.07.2008 Posts: 1,036
      42 hands isnt much, but with a PFR of 10 he is probably 3-betting JJ+ & AK. Since you are at the bottom end of that range you are way behind. Easy fold v shove from shortie
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      I snapcall here. You already have invested some money here and he is short. Also the hands don't tell anything here, only 42.
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,607
      But he could easily be a SSS player.
      even though its only 42 hands you can still get an indication if he is SSS or not.
      and 12/10 with a stack of $1.85 is pretty suss.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Well! Assume he's a real SSS player and goes broke with JJ+, AK here

      We get pot odds: 2,55 : 1.35 ~ 1,89 : 1
      Equity needed: 1/2,89 ~ 0.35 = 35%

      JJ vs JJ+ , AK = 36,6%

      So call :)
    • delete461
      delete461
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.07.2008 Posts: 1,036
      I dont think so

      36% equity when contributing 35% of the pot isnt good odds, assuming rake at 5%

      even without rake it isnt wise play imo, if you are relying on 1% edges at nl10 you are doing something wrong, it is really high variance high risk play against players who are worse than you. Wait for your spots to outplay them instead of taking these 50/50s
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Yeah you're right, with rake it's breakeven or -ev - but we don't know if he is a real shortie or not (12/10 doesn't really speak for being a real shorty - he limped, and I can tell you from experience that it's rare to limp if you're playing SSS, the situation doesn't arise often). Of course he MIGHT be, but you also don't know, and given the money invested I think it's still an easy call.
    • samy4ever
      samy4ever
      Black
      Joined: 02.04.2008 Posts: 18,682
      Instant call. He is possible a bad short stack and you have already invested some money. It's EV+. Even if it's break even, if you don't call this is money you lost and you want to maximize your winnings, or minimize your losses :)