Pushing AK vs 3-bet on SH... -EV?

    • Dragar
      Dragar
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      Alright so a lot of people who play a lot etc. keep on telling me that pushing AK against a 3-bet pre-flop is +EV

      Yes you create equity... got it.


      But overall.... I loose money and not just little.. but a lot over a bigger sample size.

      You see every time I do get called villain has QQ+, usually AA or KK
      So I tell this and I keep hearing that this is a cooler.

      Really? A cooler? Its every time someone calls me when I push. In fact villain calling range strictly is QQ+

      So this makes it -EV, I am down over 5 stacks already.

      If noone can trully explain to me why this move is +EV I will grade it as -EV and will stop pushing with AK. In fact I will only call from now on.

      So well give it your best shot without telling me that I am creating fold equity... because I actually need to get villain to fold 10+ times with this to make it +EV... and this is really not the case.
  • 11 replies
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Alright, here's the thing.


      When someone 3bets you, his range isn't QQ+. It's wider. When he calls your shove, then it's pretty much QQ+, AK.

      If you 4bet him, he'll fold the part of his range which isn't QQ+, AK and you'll win a nice sum.

      Now, if he shoves over your 4bet, he's got pretty much QQ+, AK:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Jogador 1: 38,824% 18,145% 41,359% 40,496% AKo
      Jogador 2: 61,176% 40,496% 41,359% 18,145% QQ+, AKs, AKo


      Let's take an example:

      You hold AKo and oR to 4bb. The guy 3bets you to 12bb. You can't really fold just yet. If you're OOP you pretty much have to 4bet, as playing OOP sucks. When you're IP you can call, but you shouldn't do this every time.

      Now let's say you're OOP. You 4bet to 30bb and the guy shoves. You have to call 70bb and the total pot will be 200bb. 70/200 = 0,35 and therefore 35%.
      Your pot equity is 35% and your hand equity is bigger than that. Therefore the call is profitable and you have to do it.
    • kingdippy2008
      kingdippy2008
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2008 Posts: 2,107
      Great post calta, youve helped my understand a few things a little better.

      Thanks
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Originally posted by caltabiano
      Alright, here's the thing.


      When someone 3bets you, his range isn't QQ+. It's wider. When he calls your shove, then it's pretty much QQ+, AK.

      If you 4bet him, he'll fold the part of his range which isn't QQ+, AK and you'll win a nice sum.

      Now, if he shoves over your 4bet, he's got pretty much QQ+, AK:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Jogador 1: 38,824% 18,145% 41,359% 40,496% AKo
      Jogador 2: 61,176% 40,496% 41,359% 18,145% QQ+, AKs, AKo


      Let's take an example:

      You hold AKo and oR to 4bb. The guy 3bets you to 12bb. You can't really fold just yet. If you're OOP you pretty much have to 4bet, as playing OOP sucks. When you're IP you can call, but you shouldn't do this every time.

      Now let's say you're OOP. You 4bet to 30bb and the guy shoves. You have to call 70bb and the total pot will be 200bb. 70/200 = 0,35 and therefore 35%.
      Your pot equity is 35% and your hand equity is bigger than that. Therefore the call is profitable and you have to do it.
      this

      + often they will shove even with JJ/TT/Aqs. On hgher limits you will see even more trash.

      Don't forget about samplesize. Only because you lost like 20 of you last 50 all in s with AKit doesn't mean anything. It's just variance. If you have this spot like 5k times you might get to another result.

      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar
    • Passero
      Passero
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2007 Posts: 34
      I really don't think AK is the type of hand you want to play for stacks. Especially preflop AI. AK is the type of hands you want to go to showdown with relativly small pots.

      Take a look at what Harrington on cash games says... With AK it's hard to make trips, straights etc. TPTK is not that good for showdown valule. Preflop they will call you often with JJ+ and there you will have to be lucky to hit an overcard.

      Most of the time i just call a 3bet with AK and let go of the hand when i don't hit an A or K.
      Don't forget that AK is the drawing type of hand. It MUST improve before you can make some value out of it. 90% of the hands people will call an AI preflop don't need to improve to make a descent hand. That's why i never ever go AI with AK again.

      When i do hit my A or K on the flop, then i even move with caution and it depends on villain if i call an AI or not.
    • andyb43
      andyb43
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 903
      Originally posted by Passero
      I really don't think AK is the type of hand you want to play for stacks. Especially preflop AI. AK is the type of hands you want to go to showdown with relativly small pots.

      Take a look at what Harrington on cash games says... With AK it's hard to make trips, straights etc. TPTK is not that good for showdown valule. Preflop they will call you often with JJ+ and there you will have to be lucky to hit an overcard.

      Most of the time i just call a 3bet with AK and let go of the hand when i don't hit an A or K.
      Don't forget that AK is the drawing type of hand. It MUST improve before you can make some value out of it. 90% of the hands people will call an AI preflop don't need to improve to make a descent hand. That's why i never ever go AI with AK again.

      When i do hit my A or K on the flop, then i even move with caution and it depends on villain if i call an AI or not.
      This may be 'technically' wrong but it makes most sense to me............AK is a drawing hand after all
    • Passero
      Passero
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2007 Posts: 34
      If harrington give such advice for playing AK i don't think it would be that wrong ;)

      I will look up the page tonight when i get home and perhaps scan the part about AK :)

      He also states that AK is a good hand to push in tournament play but in cash game, it needs a completly different approach.
    • andyb43
      andyb43
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 903
      Originally posted by Passero
      If harrington give such advice for playing AK i don't think it would be that wrong ;)

      I will look up the page tonight when i get home and perhaps scan the part about AK :)

      He also states that AK is a good hand to push in tournament play but in cash game, it needs a completly different approach.
      I have only read the Harrington tourney books, but the guy always makes sense. Looking forwards to your scan..... :P
    • Balanarm
      Balanarm
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      OOP vs not complete nits is easy for stacks, IP you can sometimes 4bet, call or fold, depends on opponent. Also one thing to add about OOP, you can coldcall AQ/AK from blinds vs very tight UTG raiser, because you are turning your hand into a bluff if you 3bet and isolate yourself vs strong range, if he just calls then he won't fold it on the flop when you miss.
    • steIIstuI
      steIIstuI
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,587
      Remember thet you can also win with A high sometimes.. if he has AQ and other
    • Maniatrix
      Maniatrix
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.11.2008 Posts: 674
      + often they will shove even with JJ/TT/Aqs. On hgher limits you will see even more trash.
      Really? I've seen many people shove lighter on lower limits, fullring.
    • Smileyphil
      Smileyphil
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2008 Posts: 488
      Yeah some cats will shove pretty much any pair if they have a 'read' that you are 'bluffing' them.