[NL20-NL50] low set vs very tight opponent

    • Balanarm
      Balanarm
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      Opponent is tight and good player. Tight player cbets into 2, I raise, he calls, can't put him on anythign but 66 or 88.

      3bet = 8% !

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $71,98
      BB:
      $50,00
      MP3:
      $50,00
      Hero:
      $53,50
      BU:
      $52,69

      0,25/0,5 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 2:diamond: , 2:club:
      MP3 raises to $2,00, Hero calls $2,00, BU calls $2,00, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($6,75) 8:diamond: , 2:spade: , 6:club: (3 players)
      MP3 bets $4,81, Hero raises to $11,42, BU calls $11,42, MP3 folds.

      Turn: ($34,40) Q:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $16,21, Hero folds.
  • 34 replies
    • trisminkim
      trisminkim
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.04.2008 Posts: 858
      easy shove....
      he's not VERY tight..(i am tighter than him)
      even thou he's VERY tight..
      easy shove with a set no matter what...
      if u lose it's just a bad luck.
    • Balanarm
      Balanarm
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      Originally posted by trisminkim
      easy shove....
      he's not VERY tight..(i am tighter than him)
      even thou he's VERY tight..
      easy shove with a set no matter what...
      if u lose it's just a bad luck.
      You can blame bad luck for every lost hand :D
    • trisminkim
      trisminkim
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.04.2008 Posts: 858
      funny??? LOL
      so u think of folding ur set? wow
    • trisminkim
      trisminkim
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.04.2008 Posts: 858
      set over set.. nothing u can do.. if u fold.. then u r an idiot.
      it'100bb
    • Balanarm
      Balanarm
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      I didn't mean to be rude, sorry, can you please provide arguments, like estimate his range ?:)
    • Balanarm
      Balanarm
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      The only hand I see him playing like this postflop is a set! 57 he folds too, all rest he either 3bets preflop or folds on the flop for sure, just look at the action and stats!
    • trisminkim
      trisminkim
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.04.2008 Posts: 858
      if u didn't mean it.. then it's fine..
      but calling someone funny isn't that ok..

      ok forget about it..
      one thing i can tell u about this hand is..
      u can never fold ur set no matter what.. that's all i can say..
      this is +EV.. he could have any other hand also including an overpair . esp. 100bb..

      besides he's not that tight.. and he's so aggressive.. AF:5 wow

      dan harrington wrote this in his book..
      a guy came and told him that he was able to fold his set after reading his opponent perfectly..
      what harrington thought was.."idiot"..

      i and most players never fold a set against almost anybody.. and like this board.. there's no straight yet. so ur hand is too good to even think of folding.
    • Balanarm
      Balanarm
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      Originally posted by trisminkim
      if u didn't mean it.. then it's fine..
      but calling someone funny isn't that ok..

      ok forget about it..
      one thing i can tell u about this hand is..
      u can never fold ur set no matter what.. that's all i can say..
      this is +EV.. he could have any other hand also including an overpair . esp. 100bb..

      besides he's not that tight.. and he's so aggressive.. AF:5 wow

      dan harrington wrote this on his book..
      a guy came and told him that he was able to fold his set after reading his opponent perfectly..
      what harrington thought was.."idiot"..

      i and most players never fold a set against almost anybody.. and like this board.. there's no straight yet. so ur hand is too good to even think of folding.
      Yea well, I edited the previous post, I really folded it, I must be idiot but I think I am 100% right here. I only rely on pure logics, I don't need any Harrington advices really, I can't see any hands I am ahead here, 99 is the only overpair he might not 3bet preflop(but usually he would) and it's going to fold on the flop anyway.
    • BogdanDin7
      BogdanDin7
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2008 Posts: 1,114
      You can`t blame bad luck bud you can`t put an opponent on a range THAT tight. Still he seems very aggro postflop and on a board like that I can`t see many hands that would call your raise either. Maybe an overpair 99-jj, two pair and oesd but last two are unlikely with his pf range .

      Even so I don`t think you can fold a set here. But I would rather check the turn and let him try a move with the hands that I beat , which I expect here most of the time with his high AF , then shove it in and if he does has 66/88 that`s that. C/F is just to weak here IMO and bet = commited anyway and only gets called by better like 95% of cases
    • Balanarm
      Balanarm
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      Originally posted by BogdanDin7
      You can`t blame bad luck bud you can`t put an opponent on a range THAT tight. Still he seems very aggro postflop and on a board like that I can`t see many hands that would call your raise either. Maybe an overpair 99-jj, two pair and oesd but last two are unlikely with his pf range .

      Even so I don`t think you can fold a set here. But I would rather check the turn and let him try a move with the hands that I beat , which I expect here most of the time with his high AF , then shove it in and if he does has 66/88 that`s that. C/F is just to weak here IMO and bet = commited anyway and only gets called by better like 95% of cases
      I edited, his 3bet is 7.86%. And I don't think he continues 99 here.
    • BogdanDin7
      BogdanDin7
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2008 Posts: 1,114
      Well that does narrow it down even more to 99 / maybe an 86 / 79 but those are long shots. Thinking now better of it a fold wouldn`t be that bad here , but if I would be actuallyin the hand no way I`m laying it down. check/shove turn would still be my line here
    • Balanarm
      Balanarm
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      Originally posted by BogdanDin7
      Well that does narrow it down even more to 99 / maybe an 86 / 79 but those are long shots. Thinking now better of it a fold wouldn`t be that bad here , but if I would be actuallyin the hand no way I`m laying it down. check/shove turn would still be my line here
      I played vs him quite long on 2 tables, 1 session. He doesn't overcall 86 or 79 ever, I think he is not that type of player. I saw him overcalling low pairs only and one time JTs. 99 he for sure either 3bets or folds on the flop. MP3 is in the hand it's very important! If it were heads-up I'd be c/r turn all day long.
    • Dragar
      Dragar
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      Your re-raise is not high enough. Oviously on that board it is high enough for value and keeping him in the pot. Notice that you wanted to keep him in the pot all a long, if you didn't you would bet 3x his bet. Now if you want to keep him in the pot, which your raise was designed for, what on earth makes you think that your beat all of a sudden because he calls???

      Notice his half-bet pot size on the turn? You really think he would do that on a set with a flush draw open?

      3 things:
      He hit Q
      He is using Q as a scare card against you
      He is on a flush draw

      Oh and he might also be on KK or AA of course. He might not be able to lay those hands down against raises.

      Just shove the turn...
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      harrington stuff was ment for tourneys, it was something like "everytime someone tells me that after a huge tought process he was able to get out of a 100% sure set over set situation he thought to himself --> "idiot "

      I guess that applies also to 100bb deep games , but really check-folding turn is so unbelievebly weak that being right doesn't matter anymore.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I mostly wouldn´t fold my set there in 100bb.
      Sometimes players would show there TT, 99 or 57.
      Although your line looks like a set (that´s why I`d prefer just calling on the flop, since board is dry and when you raise, you say that you have set), players don´t always believe you and might look you up with worse hands.
      c/rai is fine line to take on the turn.
    • Balanarm
      Balanarm
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      I mostly wouldn´t fold my set there in 100bb.
      Sometimes players would show there TT, 99 or 57.
      Although your line looks like a set (that´s why I`d prefer just calling on the flop, since board is dry and when you raise, you say that you have set), players don´t always believe you and might look you up with worse hands.
      c/rai is fine line to take on the turn.
      These are the only hands I concider myself ahead and as I said his 3bet is 8%, he likes to squeeze, he wouldn't flat TT for sure, 99 might, but this guy would fold it on the flop, he is good player, 99 is for sure behind even MP3's range alone very often, MP3 shows much strength, I show much strength. 57 he doesn't overcall prelfop and he's too good to call it on the flop also, because MP3 is in the hand and because we show so much strength. The table dynamics were tight, no crazy moves or something.
    • Talic
      Talic
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2008 Posts: 1,851
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      I mostly wouldn´t fold my set there in 100bb.
      Sometimes players would show there TT, 99 or 57.
      Although your line looks like a set (that´s why I`d prefer just calling on the flop, since board is dry and when you raise, you say that you have set), players don´t always believe you and might look you up with worse hands.
      c/rai is fine line to take on the turn.
      very very very true! call sets on dry boards!!!
    • Balanarm
      Balanarm
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      Originally posted by Dragar
      He hit Q
      He is using Q as a scare card against you
      He is on a flush draw
      1. Never.
      2. Never.
      3. Never.

      ;)
    • Talic
      Talic
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2008 Posts: 1,851
      I call flop, hopefully call turn and raise river :o) but you will often have to raiseturn to protect
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