Advanced Preflop: Statistical Question

  • 7 replies
    • Korn
      Korn
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2005 Posts: 12,511
      Hi Anakha:

      do the following: take the open raising chart from the advanced pre-flop section. Calculate how many % of hands a player playing according to the open raising chart raises from each position.

      Out of experience I can tell you that a player playing according to the open raising strategy has a PFR of 9-10 at a full ring table.

      With that knowledge, you can determine the answer to your question.
    • Anakha
      Anakha
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2006 Posts: 92
      I already did that actually :) . (and the SHC range, and the charts from Small stakes Hold'em, but I'm really bad at math so I'm having difficulties putting the variances together)

      Unless I made an error these are the percentages from the Big Green Brute:

      UTG 6%
      UTG1 6%
      UTG2 8.6%
      MP1 10.6%
      MP2 13.1%
      MP3 17.2%
      CO 24.6%
      BU 37.7%
      SB 61.4%


      If you say that the that an ORC player has a PFR around 9-10%, which, according to the percentages per position average between UTG2 and MP1, then why does the example (of an PFR 10% player) estimates his raise range on mp1 as 8%. I understand that the example isn't necessarily of an ORC player but we are dealing with the same PFR.
      Unless you are compensating for the huge increase in raising percentage for a late game ORC player, which might not be so large in a regular player. But then again, were do you base your reduction on?

      Or did I make a mistake in either the translation or the math? I'll admit I have practically no education in either :) .
    • Anakha
      Anakha
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2006 Posts: 92
      Hmm.... I scrapped this post, I made some averages and though they were safer in later positions they also became more vulnerable to an ORC raising from early position. Going to think about this a bit.

      I did manage to get the variances per position from the ORC, just wondering whether it's best to apply these directly to a persons PFR or wheter it's better to average them out to the general opponent.
    • Anakha
      Anakha
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2006 Posts: 92
      Alright, did some testing with different variances, the ORC's seems to work out just fine and it's easy to adjust on the spot as well.

      Made a chart to keep next to the computer and help with the estimations. :)


      Thanks Korn!
    • zaephyr
      zaephyr
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.05.2006 Posts: 33
      I know its offtopic, but can someone paste ORC or link to it? I cant find it :<.


      thx
    • Anakha
      Anakha
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2006 Posts: 92
      [Strategie] Pre-Flop: Starting Hands - Expert Theory 3.0

      and the link to the chart itself:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.org.uk/download/orc30.pdf
    • Korn
      Korn
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2005 Posts: 12,511
      Originally posted by zaephyr
      I know its offtopic, but can someone paste ORC or link to it? I cant find it :<.


      thx
      See here: http://www.pokerstrategy.org.uk/en/strategy/50/