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[NL10] NL16 QQ - overpair in 3bet pot vs. CS flop call / turn push

    • Laci24
      Laci24
      Silver
      Joined: 07.10.2009 Posts: 6,182
      Hi everyone :welcome:

      What do you think about turn play? The 7 is bad card. K7s, Q7s, J7s, A7s, 76s, 78s, are in his range, but I have overpair, and probably he can over-estimate some strong Jx.
      I thought that he can raise some combos of AJ and BD FD, but now with BD FD I am not sure.. :f_rolleyes: . 5,5 percent turn raise is interesting. It looks like he raise only with nuts made hands.

      I remembered that BogdanPS wrote more years ago in one hand analysis that flop call / turn raise from a fish is almost always the nuts, but I assumed here I have enough EQ to call. It was okay or a little bit too optimistic?

      Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.16 BB (6 players)

      BB ($6.81)
      UTG ($48.27) - 252 hand, 65/25, fold to 3bet: 94 (17) :wtf: , UTG openraise: 48 (21), fold to flop cbet: 23 (44), fold to turn cbet: 41 (17), turn raise: 5,5 (16), AFq: 35, WTSD: 32, fold to 3bet: 48 (44)
      MP ($21.27)
      CO ($18.01)
      Button ($18.04)
      Hero (SB) ($16)

      Preflop: Hero in the SB with Q, Q
      UTG raises $0.32, 3 folds, Hero raises $1.12, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.88

      Flop: ($2.56) 7, 2, J (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.28, UTG calls $1.28

      Turn: ($5.12) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.26, UTG raises $45.79 (All-In), Hero calls $10.26 (All-In)

      River: ($32.16) 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)

      Final Pot: $32.16


      Hero had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and sevens).
      UTG had K, 7 (three of a kind, sevens). :pcuser:
  • 9 replies
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 40,770
      If he has 7x in his range it will be tough. Against a regurlar I don't think he will ever call a 3bet with a 7x hand expect 77 maybe. Based on his stats he's a fish and I would give him credit for a made hand or you have good reads he can over play Jx hands.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Gold
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,281
      folding is probably correct, but it's quite tough. a random fish ships so many Jx and random pair or draw hands, but against a passive raiser like this obviously you don't have any equity against the nuts
    • nitrol
      nitrol
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.07.2010 Posts: 12,122
      Vs that push you can safely fold. Make a note on this one.
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 40,770
      Originally posted by nitrol
      Vs that push you can safely fold. Make a note on this one.
      This is indeed smart to do. Than you know that he's raising when he has trips or better post-flop.
    • ToddBrunson
      ToddBrunson
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2010 Posts: 513
      What do you think turn cbet size? I guess smaller cbet turn is fine about 1.7, pair in the board and this hand does not really have to be defend. And if we cbet 1.7 the turn he maybe thinks we hit the full
    • Mozzek
      Mozzek
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2016 Posts: 1,249
      I think smaller bet OTT would be better. On the other hand, u would lose value... Another option is to xc, but again you lose value. So I think I agree with nitrol.
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 2,164
      Not a safe fold for sure, a reg he has just 6 combos of 7x he should flat turn with a good amount anyways
      And a fullhouse has no reason to raise here ever.
      But what does he bluff with were just hoping for a spazz or overplayed JX

      I'd really struggle here in-game.

      Having shown K7S is almost a reason to call more as he's morelikely to be a loose/not so great player now
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 2,164
      I didn't even look at stats heh yeah I'd call and actually consider throwing in a turn check vs smn that loose
    • Laci24
      Laci24
      Silver
      Joined: 07.10.2009 Posts: 6,182
      Thank you all comments ;)